KLOT issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:40:00ZKLOT issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:40:00Z50% chance) for a wave or two of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms sometime in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. Prospects for cloud cover suggest highs on Monday should be a few degrees cooler than on Sunday and in the low to mid 70s. By Tuesday, the Great Lakes should be on the backside of the system, leading to pronounced northeasterly onshore flow (10 to 15 mph) and cooler temperatures in the mid 60s (upper 50s near the Lake Michigan shoreline). Wednesday and Thursday, a surface high pressure system and upper- level ridge will move over the Great Lakes allowing for a rebound in temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. With the core of the surface high pressure system expected to pass north of our area, the surface wind will maintain an onshore component. As a result, temperatures will continue to be cooler near the Lake Michigan shoreline (it's that time of year, after all). Ensemble model guidance favors the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to arrive sometime toward the end of next week. Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The primary aviation weather concerns through the 18Z TAF period include: * Brief line of gusty showers this evening and early overnight * Gusty winds during the day Saturday Current observations show a broken deck of clouds at 050 at all terminals which should persist throughout the daytime hours today. There is a slight chance (20%) that a quick sprinkle of rain could impact any site Friday afternoon, although this doen't appear likely and VFR conditions will prevail. Overnight tonight a cold front will push across the area bringing a narrow line of rain with it starting around 04z for the Chicago terminals. This line should be through ORD by 06z and MDW by 07z. An occasional gust up to 30kts and a dip to MVFR CIGS is possible with this line. Saturday will, once again, bring VFR conditions to the whole area as all TAFs show FEW050 starting in the morning behind the aforementioned cold front. Winds will be stronger Saturday sustained at 15kts from 310 at the Chicago sites with gusts up to 25kts possible. A lake breeze is expected to develop Saturday afternoon and push inland through GYY by early afternoon and be near MDW and ORD around 0z where we could see winds flip to 050 around 10kts. WMR && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ]]>