<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#8395e566314fd33c6b1bc05106c66b56" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KTOP issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:48:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KTOP issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:48:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" cccc="KTOP" ttaaii="FXUS63" issue="2024-05-10T17:48:00Z" awipsid="AFDTOP" id="6107.9013"><![CDATA[ 739 FXUS63 KTOP 101748 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1248 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather persists into Saturday. - Confidence in showers and thunderstorms on Mother's Day is increasing, but shouldn't be a complete washout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 07Z water vapor imagery showed a cutoff low over the four corners region as a shortwave dug south through the middle MS river valley and another shortwave over southern Manitoba. Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the northern Rockies and ridging south through the central and southern plains. Deep moisture was shunted to the gulf coast along a frontal boundary. A weak surface trough was noted over the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Through Saturday, the forecast area is progged to stay between the cutoff low to the west and the shortwave energy passing through the Upper Midwest while surface ridging inhibits a return of deeper moisture. Recent runs of the HRRR hint at a weak boundary moving through northeast KS this evening with isolated showers along the front as shortwave energy digs into WI. But the 00Z HREF keeps the probabilities for showers below 10 percent and the deterministic solutions fail to generate any QPF as the boundary passes through. So the lack of good moisture advection or organized forcing should keep the forecast dry into Saturday with just some mid and high clouds. Models show 925mb and 850mb temps warming a degree or two today and again Saturday. So highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer with good insolation and deep mixing of the boundary layer. By Sunday afternoon and into Monday, there is good agreement in the operational models for the closed low to the west to rejoin the main westerlies and open up as it propagates east over the plains. Some models suggest moisture return ahead of this wave could be hampered by surface ridging over the Red River. But the consensus still shows surface dewpoints increasing into the middle 50s to around 60. This may be enough for some modest instability around 1000 J/kg by Sunday afternoon. But 0-6km bulk shear is progged to be around 20KT to 30KT. So we may need to keep an eye on isolated intense storms but an organized severe risk appears to be a low chance or less than 10 percent. Timing showers and storms should have the better chances during the afternoon and evening as the better forcing is progged to lift across eastern KS. Although some guidance is showing light QPF developing Sunday morning. Operational models suggests a break in precipitation chances Tuesday in the wake of the initial upper wave and before a second wave Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM shows increasing spread in the various solutions by Wednesday, so precip chances range from 30 to 50 percent. There is not a strong signal for cold or warm air advection through the end of the forecast period, so temps are forecast to remain in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Few-Scattered cumulus clouds will develop across the terminals this afternoon with cloud bases of 5,000 to 8,000 feet. Northwest winds will be 10 to 12 KTS with gusts of 20 KTS. The cumulus clouds will decrease towards sunset, and the winds will diminish down to 4 to 8 KTS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Gargan ]]></x></message>