<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#8395e566314fd33c6b1bc05106c66b56" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KTOP issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:48:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KTOP issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T17:48:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" cccc="KTOP" ttaaii="FXUS63" issue="2024-05-10T17:48:00Z" awipsid="AFDTOP" id="6107.9013"><![CDATA[

739

FXUS63 KTOP 101748

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1248 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Pleasant weather persists into Saturday. 



- Confidence in showers and thunderstorms on Mother's Day is

  increasing, but shouldn't be a complete washout.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024



07Z water vapor imagery showed a cutoff low over the four 

corners region as a shortwave dug south through the middle MS 

river valley and another shortwave over southern Manitoba. 

Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the northern 

Rockies and ridging south through the central and southern 

plains. Deep moisture was shunted to the gulf coast along a 

frontal boundary. A weak surface trough was noted over the 

eastern Dakotas and western MN. 



Through Saturday, the forecast area is progged to stay between the 

cutoff low to the west and the shortwave energy passing through the 

Upper Midwest while surface ridging inhibits a return of deeper 

moisture. Recent runs of the HRRR hint at a weak boundary moving 

through northeast KS this evening with isolated showers along the 

front as shortwave energy digs into WI. But the 00Z HREF keeps the 

probabilities for showers below 10 percent and the deterministic 

solutions fail to generate any QPF as the boundary passes through. 

So the lack of good moisture advection or organized forcing should 

keep the forecast dry into Saturday with just some mid and high 

clouds. Models show 925mb and 850mb temps warming a degree or two 

today and again Saturday. So highs are expected to be a few degrees 

warmer with good insolation and deep mixing of the boundary layer. 



By Sunday afternoon and into Monday, there is good agreement in the 

operational models for the closed low to the west to rejoin the main 

westerlies and open up as it propagates east over the plains. Some 

models suggest moisture return ahead of this wave could be hampered 

by surface ridging over the Red River. But the consensus still shows 

surface dewpoints increasing into the middle 50s to around 60. This 

may be enough for some modest instability around 1000 J/kg by Sunday 

afternoon. But 0-6km bulk shear is progged to be around 20KT to 

30KT. So we may need to keep an eye on isolated intense storms but 

an organized severe risk appears to be a low chance or less than

10 percent. Timing showers and storms should have the better

chances during the afternoon and evening as the better forcing

is progged to lift across eastern KS. Although some guidance is

showing light QPF developing Sunday morning. 



Operational models suggests a break in precipitation chances Tuesday 

in the wake of the initial upper wave and before a second wave 

Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM shows increasing spread in the 

various solutions by Wednesday, so precip chances range from 30 to 

50 percent. There is not a strong signal for cold or warm air 

advection through the end of the forecast period, so temps are 

forecast to remain in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024



Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Few-Scattered

cumulus clouds will develop across the terminals this afternoon

with cloud bases of 5,000 to 8,000 feet. Northwest winds will 

be 10 to 12 KTS with gusts of 20 KTS. The cumulus clouds will 

decrease towards sunset, and the winds will diminish down to 4 

to 8 KTS.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wolters

AVIATION...Gargan

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