<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#8395e566314fd33c6b1bc05106c66b56" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KOKX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:18:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KOKX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:18:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" cccc="KOKX" ttaaii="FXUS61" issue="2024-05-10T18:18:00Z" awipsid="AFDOKX" id="6107.9815"><![CDATA[

543

FXUS61 KOKX 101818

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

218 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further 

south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night 

into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving 

offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during 

the middle of next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Gloomy end to the workweek with a strung out wave of low pressure 

passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Intermittent periods of rain, 

mostly light, persist much of the day. Expanding coverage this 

afternoon as the trough axis moves through, before conditions 

begin to dry out this evening. Rain should taper everywhere by 

midnight or just before. Additional QPF total perhaps up to a 

quarter inch.



With the rain, clouds, and onshore wind, temperatures run a good

10 to 15 degrees below normal for early to mid May. A few 

places in SE CT may approach 60 where rain will be minimized,

but otherwise low to mid 50s can be expected elsewhere. An east

breeze will be noticeable along the coast, adding to the chill.



Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud cover 

diminishes considerably overnight, perhaps even becoming clear 

toward daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will get a few degrees 

below normal tonight, looks for lows to mainly be in the lower 

and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a

bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday. 

Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore 

wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower

and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening 

look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an 

introduction of slight chance of showers across far western 

sections before day's end. 



For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with 

more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with 

consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance 

PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead 

of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few 

degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass 

offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back 

over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much 

surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher 

probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The 

atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will 

primarily be in the mid/upper-50s.



There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble 

guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat 

ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger 

into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased 

sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to 

the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with 

most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a 

southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area. 



Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream 

shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards 

the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal 

system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle 

Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low 

passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early 

Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Weak high pressure builds in from the northeast this afternoon

and tonight and remains over the Northeast through Saturday.



Conditions are improving over eastern terminals as clouds are

scattering out there. Expect improvement to continue from

northeast to southwest, with a forecast return to VFR by 21Z or

sooner. Showers are also still possible, but they are expected 

to be light and have no impact to visibility, dissipating as 

they head into the high pressure.



East winds increase to around 10-15 kt. Gusts for the most part

are more occasional to around 20 kt. Winds shift more NE this

evening into tonight, then back to the E Saturday morning before

sea breezes affect the terminals. 



 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...



Conditions becoming VFR this afternoon, possibly a few hours

earlier than is forecast.



OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...



Saturday: VFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kt.



Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. 



Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.



Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW G15-20kt.



Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 

can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

Small craft conditions across all waters today with gusts at 25

to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions should return 

to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas likely remaining 

on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub small craft 

conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on the ocean 

for much of this weekend. South winds may increase Monday 

evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters just 

below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet during 

this time frame.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.



&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be 

less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for 

the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, 

along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen 

based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and 

ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn, 

Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were 

previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern 

Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels 

have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor 

benchmarks.



Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could 

be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise 

this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come 

to an end later in the weekend.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT 

     Saturday for CTZ009.

NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT 

     Saturday for NYZ071.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT 

     Saturday for NYZ178-179.

NJ...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-

     332-335-340.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-

     345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-

     355.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...JE/BR

NEAR TERM...DR

SHORT TERM...JE/BR

LONG TERM...BR

AVIATION...JP

MARINE...JE/BR

HYDROLOGY...JE/BR

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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