KAMA issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:34:00ZKAMA issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:34:00Z1000 J/kg (40-70%), the most favored areas for this low-end severe potential would reside across the eastern to central combined Panhandles. Regardless, any shower or storm on Sunday would likely provide beneficial rainfall, especially across eastern counties where model forecast soundings depict a saturated environment with tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Generally expect weekend rainfall totals in the 0.1-0.5" range, with localized higher localized totals in the 0.75-1.00" range or greater certainly plausible. As the system departs Sunday night, a weak cold front will swoop down and steal whatever moisture remains, although some lingering showers may persist into Monday morning. Monday will actually be warmer behind the front however, thanks to eroding cloud cover and increased sunshine. Sfc winds shift to south- southwesterly Tuesday as ridging aloft makes a temporary return. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, warming into the 80s Tuesday. Rain and storms could return by midweek when ensembles agree another shortwave approaches the region. Details are still up in the air and although currently unimpressive, Wednesday could be a day to monitor for strong to severe storms, with rain chances persisting into Thursday. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms push into the western panhandles this afternoon and evening. While this is not expected to impact any terminal today there is a very small chance that KDHT can be impacted. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of today and early morning hours. By mid morning of Saturday rain showers and thunderstorms will spread across the panhandles and become more numerous. All terminals will have a chance for rain and thunderstorms through this time. Conditions have a high chance to become MVFR as low clouds settle across the panhandles starting during the mid morning impacting all terminals. While the chances are very low strong storms with hail and damaging winds cannot be fully ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 69 52 72 / 10 60 70 80 Beaver OK 50 79 52 73 / 0 40 60 90 Boise City OK 47 67 47 72 / 20 80 70 80 Borger TX 53 76 54 77 / 10 60 70 90 Boys Ranch TX 51 70 52 77 / 20 70 80 70 Canyon TX 50 67 51 74 / 10 60 70 70 Clarendon TX 53 71 53 69 / 10 60 60 90 Dalhart TX 46 65 48 74 / 20 80 80 70 Guymon OK 48 73 50 74 / 10 60 70 90 Hereford TX 51 67 52 76 / 20 70 80 60 Lipscomb TX 52 78 54 72 / 0 30 70 90 Pampa TX 52 73 53 71 / 10 50 60 90 Shamrock TX 54 75 54 68 / 0 40 60 90 Wellington TX 55 75 54 68 / 0 40 60 90 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...98 ]]>