KILX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:51:00ZKILX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-10T18:51:00Z 30% north of a Macomb to Paris line) for showers will arrive tonight as a fast-moving, compact trough clips the northeast portion of our area with cooling temps aloft leading to elevated instability and low level shear increases along a trailing cold front. Between 11pm (NW of the IL River) and 4am (E of I-57), stamps on SPC's HREF page show various CAMs bring a narrow ribbon of reflectivities across the area along that front, with the highest values (and greatest chance for something to actually reach the surface through a relatively dry atmosphere) north of I-74, where 40-60% of membership depicts measurable precip. Behind that departing trough, another ridge will build gradually in its wake through the weekend to foster dry and gradually warming conditions. By Sunday, we'll see a return to above normal temps (normal high in Lincoln is 74 degF), though mid to high clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next system - a cut off low meandering our way from the Great Plains. While that feature doesn't properly arrive until Tuesday, moisture advection ahead of it could lead to rain activity by late Sunday night, though this will be delayed at least a little by the dry low level airmass in place at that time. Depending on the exact track of that low (and when the next system approaches behind it), precip chances could linger through Wednesday and possibly even into Thursday, particularly south of I-72 given the closer proximity of the surface low's center which the ensemble mean tracks between Springfield, MO and Louisville, KY from Monday night to Thursday morning. NBM suggests the same areas (south of I- 72) will have a 30-40% chance for seeing more than 1 inch of rain for the 48-hour period ending at 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday, which will increase run-off into rivers already running high and hence flooding potential along riverbanks. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Aside from marginal MVFR ceilings around BMI (which should be lifting over the next hour or two), VFR conditions should be predominant throughout the forecast period, barring a brief vis drop with scattered showers overnight. Low VFR ceilings should break up behind the cold front, when a pronounced wind shift (from southwest to northwest) will also occur. Northwest winds will increase, gusting frequently over 20 kt, by mid to late Saturday morning when surface heating aids in mixing. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ]]>