<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#c045b789ed4e915576de3f86bf537ba0" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T19:32:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T19:32:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.2876" issue="2024-05-31T19:32:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS61" cccc="KILN" awipsid="AFDILN"><![CDATA[

339

FXUS61 KILN 311932

AFDILN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

332 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions 

through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late 

Saturday through early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Surface high pressure slowly shifts off the east this evening into 

tonight. As this occurs, and upper level vorticity max will approach 

from the west thereby increasing southerly flow over the Ohio 

Valley. Upper level clouds and moisture increase through the night 

on the southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the middle 50s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning 

ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface 

disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting 

across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in 

from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe 

threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear 

is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase 

through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80.  



The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level 

trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch 

with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into 

the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the 

night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the 

trough axis.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Showers will still be ongoing at the start of the period as

weakening short wave continues east. But precipitation will

diminish as the day progresses. Any remaining surface boundary 

will wash out and weak high pressure will build in resulting a

dry period from Sunday night through much of Monday night. 



Mid level pattern will then evolve into a negatively tilted

omega block through the rest of the week. The region will be on

the troughing end of the block. This will bring chances of

showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday. That will continue

into Thursday when the mid level trough becomes deep enough to

force a front through the region. Drier conditions are forecast

for Friday as high pressure builds in to the southwest.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions persist through at least 1800z Saturday despite 

increasing upper and mid level clouds. MVFR or lower conditions and 

showers are eventually expected to develop after 1800z Saturday. 



Southeasterly winds from 5-10 knots shifts to the south after 1200z 

Saturday.



OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through

Tuesday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell

NEAR TERM...Campbell

SHORT TERM...Campbell

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...Campbell

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