<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#c045b789ed4e915576de3f86bf537ba0" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T19:32:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T19:32:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.2876" issue="2024-05-31T19:32:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS61" cccc="KILN" awipsid="AFDILN"><![CDATA[ 339 FXUS61 KILN 311932 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure slowly shifts off the east this evening into tonight. As this occurs, and upper level vorticity max will approach from the west thereby increasing southerly flow over the Ohio Valley. Upper level clouds and moisture increase through the night on the southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80. The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the trough axis. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers will still be ongoing at the start of the period as weakening short wave continues east. But precipitation will diminish as the day progresses. Any remaining surface boundary will wash out and weak high pressure will build in resulting a dry period from Sunday night through much of Monday night. Mid level pattern will then evolve into a negatively tilted omega block through the rest of the week. The region will be on the troughing end of the block. This will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday. That will continue into Thursday when the mid level trough becomes deep enough to force a front through the region. Drier conditions are forecast for Friday as high pressure builds in to the southwest. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions persist through at least 1800z Saturday despite increasing upper and mid level clouds. MVFR or lower conditions and showers are eventually expected to develop after 1800z Saturday. Southeasterly winds from 5-10 knots shifts to the south after 1200z Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Campbell ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="e1be5883-2732-49e1-92d1-59e4afd3edf1" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>