<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#c045b789ed4e915576de3f86bf537ba0" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KGLD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T20:00:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KGLD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T20:00:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.3108" issue="2024-05-31T20:00:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KGLD" awipsid="AFDGLD"><![CDATA[

575

FXUS63 KGLD 312000

AFDGLD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather

  systems moves through during the late afternoon through

  overnight hours from west to east. Severe weather and locally

  excessive rainfall threats continue. 



- A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday

  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some

  90s. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024



Tonight...similar to the past few days, showers/thunderstorms are 

anticipated to move along the Palmer Divide into parts of Yuma, Kit 

Carson counties between 5-6 PM MDT, potentially splitting into two 

clusters (one north of I-70 with the more dominant cluster south of 

I-70) through 9 PM MDT before dissipating some after midnight 

although 20% pops continue east of Highway 26 through 3 AM MDT. The 

severe weather threats look similar to yesterday with large hail, 

gusty winds and locally excessive rainfall the primary threats. 

Those who received heavy rainfall the past 24-72 hours would have a 

heightened threat for flooding/flash flooding. Low temperatures are 

forecast to be in the lower to middle 50s. 



Saturday-Saturday night...another round of showers and thunderstorms 

are forecast to move across the area from west to east from very 

late in the afternoon through the overnight hours. Similar to the 

past several days, the primary hazards will be large hail, damaging 

wind gusts and locally excessive rainfall. High temperatures rise 

into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the lower 

50s to around 60.



Sunday-Sunday night...a weak weather disturbance embedded within a 

subtle 500mb trough moves across the area supporting 20%-40% chances 

for showers and thunderstorms during the typical afternoon through 

overnight hours. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 

90 with low temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s. 



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024



Tuesday...there may be a few thunderstorms generally east of Highway 

25 otherwise dry weather is expected. High temperatures remain in 

the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 50s. 



Wednesday...dry weather is currently forecast as upper level ridging 

builds over the area from the west. High temperatures remain in the 

middle to upper 80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to 

around 60.  



Thursday...this mornings guidance is advertising 20% chances for 

showers/thunderstorms overnight, possibly tied to a passing mid 

level disturbance within northwest flow aloft and increasing 

moisture in the 700-500mb layer. High temperatures are forecast to 

be in the middle to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 

degree range. 



Friday...there is a 20% chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight 

as another weather system moves through from the northwest. High 

temperatures remain in the middle 80s with low temperatures in the 

middle to upper 50s. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024



KGLD...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.

A light east to southeast wind at taf issuance will continue

through the afternoon, becoming established from the southeast

up to 10kts tonight. Winds then become a bit more southerly near

sunrise and continue through the rest of the period, slowly

increasing toward 12kts. There is another chance for

showers/thunderstorms to be near/over the terminal in the

02z-04z timeframe. Will be watching the period from taf issuance

through about 21z as cigs may flirt with MVFR category. 



KMCK...sub VFR cigs are possible from taf issuance through the

afternoon with a light and variable wind. These light and

variable winds continue through Saturday morning before

establishing a southeasterly direction at speeds around 10kts.

Presently, showers and thunderstorms are not forecast to be

near/over the terminal.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024



Still have concerns with flooding through the weekend. Multiple

advisories and a few warnings were sent out last night as most

of the area received another 1 to 4 inches of rain. Compounding

this with the multiple inches of rain received the prior days

have left parts of the area with 50-75% soil saturation, leaving

them more prone to flooding.



The potential help the next few days is that the forecast

soundings have downshear vectors around 40-45 kts which is much

faster than the previous days and would require more efficient

storms to produce more than two inches. Will have to watch for

storms clustering and training over areas as this would offset

the faster motion. So far the chances aren't watch worthy, but

the flooding threat continues.



&&



.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

CO...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...99

LONG TERM...99

AVIATION...99

HYDROLOGY...

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