<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#c045b789ed4e915576de3f86bf537ba0" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KMLB issues Fire Weather Spot Forecast (FWS) valid 2024-05-31T20:41:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KMLB issues Fire Weather Spot Forecast (FWS) valid 2024-05-31T20:41:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.4215" issue="2024-05-31T20:41:00Z" ttaaii="FNUS72" cccc="KMLB" awipsid="FWSMLB"><![CDATA[

706

FNUS72 KMLB 312041

FWSMLB



Spot Forecast for Horseshoe WF...Florida Forest Service

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

441 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on May 31. 

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather

Service.



.DISCUSSION...

Breezy northeast winds this evening will diminish to around 5 mph

tonight. On Saturday, no rain is forecast. Winds become easterly 

10-15 mph with gusts 15-25 mph. Minimum RH falls to 35-40% again 

on Saturday afternoon after a morning recovery to around 80-85%. 

The increase in wind speeds are producing Very Good to Excellent 

dispersion values and combined with dry fuels will produce very 

sensitive fire weather conditions through Saturday. 



.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). 

Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 

LAL.................No Tstms. 

Max temperature.....Around 90. 

Min humidity........42 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 13 mph. 

Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....East around 16 mph. 

Dispersion index....71. 

LVORI...............1. 



TIME (EDT)      5PM 

Sky (%).........21  

Weather cov.....    

Weather type....    

Tstm cov........    

Chc of pcpn (%).10  

LAL.............1   

Temp............87  

RH..............42  

20 FT wind dir..NE  

20 FT wind spd..13  

20 FT wind gust.21  

Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 

Transp wind dir.E   

Transp wind spd.16  

Dispersion idx..71  

LVORI...........1   



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). 

Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 

LAL.................No Tstms. 

Min temperature.....Around 68. 

Max humidity........84 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 13 mph in the evening and 

                    overnight becoming light. 

Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....East 12 to 20 mph decreasing to 9 to 12 mph 

                    overnight. 

Dispersion index....75 decreasing to 8 early in the evening. 

LVORI...............2 increasing to 4 in the late evening and 

                    overnight. 



TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   

Sky (%).........16     6      3      8      17     18     

Weather cov.....                                          

Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   

Tstm cov........                                          

Chc of pcpn (%).10     0      0      0      0      0      

LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      

Temp............86     80     76     73     71     70     

RH..............44     54     62     68     73     78     

20 ft wind......NE 13  E 9    E 6    E 5    E 5    E 3    

20 ft wind gust.21     20     15     12     12     12     

Mix hgt (ft)....5000   2700   600    400    400    400    

Transport wind..NE 18  E 18   E 13   E 10   E 10   E 10   

Dispersion idx..75     12     6      5      5      5      

LVORI...........1      2      3      3      3      4      



.SATURDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). 

Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 

LAL.................No Tstms. 

Max temperature.....Around 87. 

Min humidity........40 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in 

                    the late morning and afternoon. 

Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 6300 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....East 9 to 16 mph. 

Dispersion index....5 increasing to 28 early in the morning, then 

                    increasing to 76 late in the morning increasing 

                    to 91 late in the morning decreasing to 73 

                    decreasing to 66 late in the afternoon. 

LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the late morning and 

                    afternoon. 



TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   

Sky (%).........24     16     26     26     43     26     

Weather cov.....                                          

Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   

Tstm cov........                                          

Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     0      0      

LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      

Temp............68     73     81     84     85     87     

RH..............84     71     52     45     43     40     

20 ft wind......E 5    E 7    E 9    E 12   E 12   E 12   

20 ft wind gust.12     14     20     22     23     23     

Mix hgt (ft)....500    1500   5000   5700   6300   6100   

Transport wind..E 12   E 14   E 16   E 15   E 14   E 15   

Dispersion idx..5      28     91     77     69     69     

LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1      



$$

Forecaster...Heil

Requested by...Brad Weller

Type of request...WILDFIRE

.TAG 2415429.0/MLB

.DELDT 05/31/24

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL Bradley.weller@fdacs.gov

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