<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KRAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T22:46:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KRAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T22:46:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.7829" issue="2024-05-31T22:46:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS62" cccc="KRAH" awipsid="AFDRAH"><![CDATA[ 427 FXUS62 KRAH 312246 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 646 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle and South Atlantic through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 PM Friday... A longwave ridge now centered from the TN Valley to Hudson Bay will progress east and extend from the Carolinas to QC by 12Z Sat. Accompanying strong height rises, maximized in excess of 150 meters at 300 mb over the lwr Great Lakes in 12Z RAOB data, will spread sewd and across the srn Middle Atlantic. While associated mid/upr- level subsidence will result over cntl NC, extrapolation of visible satellite data trends indicate a cirrus/cirrostratus canopy may persist at least through this evening across the srn NC Piedmont and Sandhills. At the surface, the center of ~1026 mb Canadian high pressure over ern OH/wrn PA will follow the aforementioned height rises aloft and across the srn Middle Atlantic and become situated squarely over NC tonight. The presence and influence of the Canadian high, and calm tonight, will yield unseasonably cool low temperatures in the middle 40s to lwr 50s (~10-15 F below average). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Friday... A longwave mid/upr-level ridge will progress across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic, downstream of a shortwave perturbation, and slightly preceding MCVs/convectively-generated vorticity axis, that will pivot newd from the mid-South to the cntl Appalachians and srn Middle Atlantic. Associated lift will result in the ewd progression and lowering of high through mid-level ceilings over cntl NC Sat night, including down to 10-12 thousand ft AGL over the wrn NC Piedmont by 12Z Sun. At the surface, Canadian-sourced high pressure will drift off the coast of the Carolinas and into the wrn Atlantic, with associated light sly flow that will develop and result across cntl NC. Modification of the high, and the development of the "return", sly flow, will favor warming of high temperatures into mostly the low- mid 80s, but with continued low humidity in the 20th-30th percentile. Low temperatures will also be less cool but still slightly below average, mostly in the mid 50s to around 60 F, mildest where clouds will thicken and lower first over the nw NC Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 231 PM Friday... A series of short wave troughs are forecast by models to move across our region through much of the period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be centered to our east offshore of Cape Fear at the start of the period and will generally remain to our east during the period, with sw low level flow persisting over the Carolinas and promoting gradual WAA and increasing PWAT through the week. The Piedmont trough will develop each day, with the next substantial sfc front approaching and moving through late Thursday when a deeper upper trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes region. The sensible weather as a result of the above pattern will feature gradually increasing temps and humidity each day as sw low level flow persists. Sunday will be the last of the near-normal temp days for the period, with highs in the mid 80s, but then highs a few deg either side of 90 will be possible each day the rest of the week. Most of our CWA should remain dry on Sunday, with the exception of our western Piedmont zones where a few isold showers/tstms are possible. Then for the remainder of the week, we’ll have mainly diurnal aoa-climo PoPs Monday through Wednesday, then the highest PoPs late Thursday in response to the approaching front. The front should be to our east by Friday morning, with dry weather for the rest of Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 646 PM Friday... There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Light winds will become southerly by Sat afternoon. Outlook: Return flow moisture, combined with a lee trough and weak surface front, will result in a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms, and also a small chance of pre-dawn, patchy sub-VFR restrictions, Sunday through the middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Kren/MWS ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="10495c2d-d0a3-4dfc-92e9-64a88a468b10" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>