KABR issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:18:00ZKABR issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:18:00Z 500 J/KG and 0-500 MB bulk shear > 30 kts over our western CWA. Therefore, a strong to severe storm or two is certainly not out of the question. Very uncertain on the overall extent of this convection through the overnight as well as how long and how much cloud cover will linger into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday with a storm system impacting the region. Warm air advection, along with a 30-35 knot LLJ ahead of the surface low pressure may produce showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. How long the morning convection lingers in the eastern CWA may limit the severe threat during the evening hours. An area of low pressure and associated cold front should progress eastward across the region Sunday afternoon through the evening hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible along the front as instability increases to 1000 to 2000 J/kg, along with 0-6 km bulk shear values 30-40 knots. The severe threat appears best between 22-04Z and east of the Missouri River valley. All hazards appear possible, including tornadoes. The storms should push east of the CWA by 6Z Monday, with a brief period of dry conditions possible on Monday. Another storm system should progress across the region late Monday night through Tuesday, bringing another round of strong to perhaps severe storms. The weather pattern beyond Tuesday favors northwest flow aloft with mainly dry conditions. Some model guidance suggests above average temperatures by the end of next week, while others indicate slightly below average due to an upper level trough closer to the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds will be light as high pressure moves overhead tonight/early Saturday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Serr LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Connelly ]]>