<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KDMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:36:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KDMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:36:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9149" issue="2024-05-31T23:36:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KDMX" awipsid="AFDDMX"><![CDATA[

779

FXUS63 KDMX 312336

AFDDMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

636 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024



 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms focused mainly west/north through AM Sat

  Brief heavy rainfall possible through evening north/northwest

- Break Sat through Midday Sunday

- Mon/Tue systems a bit stronger with potential heavy rainfall

  and some severe storms by Tuesday afternoon/evening



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024



.Short Term /Tonight through Saturday Night/...



Confidence Short Term:  Medium



Main concern this period will be the chances for storms over the 

area next 24 hours. We continue with a weakly forced synoptic 

pattern and cool front northwest with an upper level wave and old 

MCV tracking through the region today into tonight. The old MCV has 

been moving north into northern Iowa this morning which the upper 

level wave is likely beginning to enhance some of the convection 

over the western counties late this morning. An upper level ridge 

has kept H700 steering currents from the southeast over southwest 

Iowa, then recurving northeast over western to northeast Iowa. The 

ridge has managed and will maintain an area of lesser PoP chances 

east and southeast through this evening. We have warmed more rapidly 

over the southeast/central due to the ridge and highs should breach 

the 80 degree mark this afternoon there. Aloft at H850, a ribbon of 

deeper moisture extends from western Iowa into Central Nebraska 

south into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States. An area of low 

pressure over northeast Texas will move east northeast tonight, 

pulling the weak boundary over northwest Iowa east tonight as well. 

This will enhance showers and storm coverage over the west and 

northwest this evening and overnight. Across central to southeast 

and eastern Iowa, forcing remains weaker and coverage of showers and 

storms in these areas will be less. With the activity being mainly 

instability driven, severe chances remain rather low. Shear is not 

anticipated to increase through the event tonight and Saturday 

morning. Overnight tonight, we will remain quite mild with lows in 

the 60s across the region. Although there may be a few lingering 

showers early tomorrow morning, the bulk of the day will be pleasant 

with partly cloudy conditions and highs climbing back to the upper 

70s to lower 80s. Saturday night will remain rain free with some 

clouds returning to the west/northwest ahead of the next upstream 

wave tracking into the Northern Plains, while another system 

develops in the lee of the Rockies in the Southern Plains by Monday. 



.Long Term /Sunday through Friday/...



Confidence: Medium



There continue some timing differences with the system on Sunday, 

but the consensus is for some storm development west of I35 during 

the afternoon/evening with the bulk of any storms arriving overnight 

into early Monday morning as an upper level short wave and pulse of 

warm air advection moves over the region Sunday night. Wind shear 

remains rather meager Sunday night into Monday, but there will still 

be some need to monitor the storms overnight due to storm motion. 

Some storms may backbuild across the area Sunday night. As PWATs 

increase to 1.5 to 1.75 and warm cloud depths reach 3km, locally 

heavy rainfall will become more likely east of I35 after midnight as 

a trough/weak boundary moves east into eastern Iowa. Rainfall totals 

could reach 2 to 3 inches in some areas in this scenario and will 

need to be monitored in later forecasts. After highs in the upper 

70s to lower 80s Sunday, Sunday night will be mild and rather humid, 

with overnight mins in the mid to upper 60s. By Monday morning, we 

should be entering a brief break in the activity until later Monday 

afternoon or evening. The main upper level trough will still be west 

of Iowa Monday morning, but finally drive east through the region by 

Monday night into Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the upper 70s to 

mid 80s.  Both later Monday into Tuesday appear active with showers 

and storms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, though 

Tuesday evening appears to be the timeframe of higher severe 

potential as shear increases through the column. The GEFS mean 

rainfall Monday/Tues is running 1 to 1.5 inches while the EPS mean 

is running about 1 inch at this time. Once the trough exits on 

Tuesday, the remainder of the period will be less active with a 

return of west northwest flow and gradually cooler temperatures. By 

Thursday and Friday, H850 temps fall to about 9C northeast to 13C 

southeast. This should bring highs back down to the 70s northeast to 

the lower 80s southwest with relative comfortable humidity levels.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024



VFR conditions will prevail for much of the TAF period, however

a period of MVFR ceilings is expected during the morning hours

Saturday and have included this in the 00Z TAFs, with details to

be refined for the 06Z issuance. In addition, showers and a few

thunderstorms will move through overnight, with the highest

probability of impact at FOD/MCW, and may produce brief reduced

ceilings or visibility as they move through. Any TSRA will be

isolated and brief, and thus is not advertised in the TAFs.



&&



.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...REV

AVIATION...Lee

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