<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KDMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:36:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KDMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:36:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9149" issue="2024-05-31T23:36:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KDMX" awipsid="AFDDMX"><![CDATA[ 779 FXUS63 KDMX 312336 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 636 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms focused mainly west/north through AM Sat Brief heavy rainfall possible through evening north/northwest - Break Sat through Midday Sunday - Mon/Tue systems a bit stronger with potential heavy rainfall and some severe storms by Tuesday afternoon/evening && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .Short Term /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Confidence Short Term: Medium Main concern this period will be the chances for storms over the area next 24 hours. We continue with a weakly forced synoptic pattern and cool front northwest with an upper level wave and old MCV tracking through the region today into tonight. The old MCV has been moving north into northern Iowa this morning which the upper level wave is likely beginning to enhance some of the convection over the western counties late this morning. An upper level ridge has kept H700 steering currents from the southeast over southwest Iowa, then recurving northeast over western to northeast Iowa. The ridge has managed and will maintain an area of lesser PoP chances east and southeast through this evening. We have warmed more rapidly over the southeast/central due to the ridge and highs should breach the 80 degree mark this afternoon there. Aloft at H850, a ribbon of deeper moisture extends from western Iowa into Central Nebraska south into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States. An area of low pressure over northeast Texas will move east northeast tonight, pulling the weak boundary over northwest Iowa east tonight as well. This will enhance showers and storm coverage over the west and northwest this evening and overnight. Across central to southeast and eastern Iowa, forcing remains weaker and coverage of showers and storms in these areas will be less. With the activity being mainly instability driven, severe chances remain rather low. Shear is not anticipated to increase through the event tonight and Saturday morning. Overnight tonight, we will remain quite mild with lows in the 60s across the region. Although there may be a few lingering showers early tomorrow morning, the bulk of the day will be pleasant with partly cloudy conditions and highs climbing back to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday night will remain rain free with some clouds returning to the west/northwest ahead of the next upstream wave tracking into the Northern Plains, while another system develops in the lee of the Rockies in the Southern Plains by Monday. .Long Term /Sunday through Friday/... Confidence: Medium There continue some timing differences with the system on Sunday, but the consensus is for some storm development west of I35 during the afternoon/evening with the bulk of any storms arriving overnight into early Monday morning as an upper level short wave and pulse of warm air advection moves over the region Sunday night. Wind shear remains rather meager Sunday night into Monday, but there will still be some need to monitor the storms overnight due to storm motion. Some storms may backbuild across the area Sunday night. As PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.75 and warm cloud depths reach 3km, locally heavy rainfall will become more likely east of I35 after midnight as a trough/weak boundary moves east into eastern Iowa. Rainfall totals could reach 2 to 3 inches in some areas in this scenario and will need to be monitored in later forecasts. After highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday, Sunday night will be mild and rather humid, with overnight mins in the mid to upper 60s. By Monday morning, we should be entering a brief break in the activity until later Monday afternoon or evening. The main upper level trough will still be west of Iowa Monday morning, but finally drive east through the region by Monday night into Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Both later Monday into Tuesday appear active with showers and storms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, though Tuesday evening appears to be the timeframe of higher severe potential as shear increases through the column. The GEFS mean rainfall Monday/Tues is running 1 to 1.5 inches while the EPS mean is running about 1 inch at this time. Once the trough exits on Tuesday, the remainder of the period will be less active with a return of west northwest flow and gradually cooler temperatures. By Thursday and Friday, H850 temps fall to about 9C northeast to 13C southeast. This should bring highs back down to the 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest with relative comfortable humidity levels. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for much of the TAF period, however a period of MVFR ceilings is expected during the morning hours Saturday and have included this in the 00Z TAFs, with details to be refined for the 06Z issuance. In addition, showers and a few thunderstorms will move through overnight, with the highest probability of impact at FOD/MCW, and may produce brief reduced ceilings or visibility as they move through. Any TSRA will be isolated and brief, and thus is not advertised in the TAFs. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...REV AVIATION...Lee ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="96523f81-0269-4846-bbe6-88d269a57eae" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>