<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KDTX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:48:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KDTX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:48:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9494" issue="2024-05-31T23:48:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KDTX" awipsid="AFDDTX"><![CDATA[

136

FXUS63 KDTX 312348

AFDDTX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

748 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry weather continues today and most of Saturday. The next chance 

for rain arrives Saturday evening through Sunday morning. 



- The weekend finishes dry and warm Sunday with highs near 80. 



- Potential for multiple rounds of showers next week.



&&



.AVIATION...



VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. High pressure 

over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain a south to southeast wind

at 10 knots or less. The dry airmass persists with only increasing 

coverage of high clouds tomorrow ahead of the next low pressure 

system. Greater precipitation chances arrive just beyond this TAF 

period late tomorrow evening. 



For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this 

forecast period.



DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...  



* None.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



DISCUSSION...



Clear skies have pushed temperatures into the upper 70s this 

afternoon, slightly above normal for the end of May. Dry conditions 

persist through the rest of the day into tonight. Overnight lows 

will depend on timing and extent of clouds moving in, but with 

enough time under clear skies, full radiative cooling could push 

temperatures down to the low 50s. 



Upper level ridge supporting the high pressure center moves out 

beginning Saturday and a shortwave trough brings the next chance for 

precipitation. Profiles remain very dry Saturday morning, with only 

high clouds moving in at first. Southerly flow helps advect moisture 

into the lower levels, slowly saturating the profile and lowering 

ceilings as the day progresses. Temperatures Saturday will be a bit 

inhibited by increasing cloud cover through the day, but the 

aforementioned southerly flow also provides some warm air advection 

to heat up to the mid-70s. The gradual saturation process keeps the 

rain at bay until the late afternoon/evening, but pushes PWAT values 

from below a half inch in the morning Saturday to 1.5 inches or 

greater early Sunday morning. Little to no significant CAPE makes 

its way into the area for this event, and the atmosphere remains 

relatively stable. As such, thunderstorms look unlikely, although a 

stray rumble of thunder may pop up. 



Storm total QPF amounts will generally be greater in the southern 

part of the CWA, with some areas seeing over a half inch of rain, 

mainly in Lenawee and Monroe counties. Strong theta-e advection 

along a 30 knot low-level jet provide some potential for excessive 

rainfall with this setup. Hi-res models have yet to fully resolve 

the end of the rainfall on Sunday, but since solutions have tended 

to keep the system moving, concerns for excessive rainfall are not 

strong at the moment. 



Cloud cover keeps the temperature swing down on Sunday, with lows 

Saturday night into Sunday morning staying up in the 60s and highs 

cooling down slightly Sunday afternoon reaching the low to mid 70s.

Clearer conditions return on Monday as a brief ridge provides some 

relief from the rain. Southerly flow continues to keep temperatures 

high Monday with potential to touch 80 degrees across the CWA in 

spite of advancing cloud cover from the next storm. 



Upper level shortwave develops another low pressure center over the 

northern Great Plains and brings it northeast into western Ontario 

Monday evening. This system brings with it the possibility for 

additional light rain for the CWA Tuesday morning as a warm 

front moves across the region, but guidance suggests that the 

strongest forcing, coming from the system's cold front, will remain 

to the north. Ensemble runs give a third of an inch of rain as a 

reasonable upper limit for this event with this much lead time. 



Behind Tuesday's system a large negatively tilted longwave trough 

begins to take shape, likely bringing multiple rounds of 

showers for the end of the week. A very tight gradient in the 

upper levels will bring strong flow aloft, over 100 knots at 500mb, 

as well as a streak of high relative vorticity. Should this system 

set up the right way, temperatures will drop significantly as the 

center of the upper level low drops 540-550dam heights at 500mb into 

the Great Lakes area in addition to the aforementioned 

rain.



MARINE...



High pressure continues to influence the area through early Saturday 

as it gradually drifts toward the mid-Atlantic. Low pressure 

lifting into northern Ontario drags a cold front into the Great 

Lakes Saturday as a secondary area of low pressure develops along 

this boundary over the western Ohio Valley. Secondary low is set to 

track northeast into southern Great Lakes late Saturday into the 

first half of Sunday bringing widespread shower chances. A 

thunderstorm or two remain possible from roughly Port Huron south. 

Diffuse pressure gradient however results in generally lighter winds 

(below 20kts) with this system. Weak high pressure then briefly 

builds in late Sunday and Monday.



&&



.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&



$$



AVIATION.....AA

DISCUSSION...BC

MARINE.......KDK





You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online

at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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