<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:50:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:50:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9513" issue="2024-05-31T23:50:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KJKL" awipsid="AFDJKL"><![CDATA[ 155 FXUS63 KJKL 312350 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather can be expected today and into Saturday. The next system will then begin to impact the region starting late Saturday and continuing into Sunday. - It will become warmer and more humid with a potential of showers and thunderstorms continuing into the new work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east and holding on for one more evening over eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, low pressure continues to work towards eastern Kentucky from the west with some leading high clouds moving into the area from central Kentucky. Most of the fair weather cumulus has cleared out with the approach of sunset. This will likely allow for a period of decent radiational cooling yielding a moderate ridge to valley temperature split through the night along with a potential for fog in the river valleys late tonight into dawn, Saturday. Currently temperatures vary from the upper 60s in some sheltered eastern valleys to the low and mid 70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid generally light and variable winds, dewpoints range from the mid and upper 40s north to the low and mid 50s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 The late morning update raises Sky grids through the short term as high-level cloud cover is proving to be thicker than initially forecast, enough so to partially obscure the sun. Besides raising the sky cover in the grids, changes were minimal. Blended in latest observations to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 703 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 The forecast is on track. Early morning obs are blended into the forecast without substantive changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 Early this morning an upper level trough is centered along the East Coast, ridging is over the upper Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley, and a weak trough is to the west of that. At the surface, high pressure is centered over OH. The setup is bringing us our cool and dry weather. The regime will shift east with time. This results in rising geopotential heights and low level flow veering from easterly today to southerly by Saturday. Abundant sunshine under the arriving upper level ridge will bring a sizable warmup today. A dry air mass still in place will allow for cool valley temperatures in the 40s again tonight, but the return of low level warm air advection will hold ridges milder. The upper level ridge will slip to our east on Saturday and the weak trough will approach while low level southerly flow advects moisture northward. The GFS is faster to bring the moist flow and precip eastward into our area compared to the ECMWF and NAM. A model blend/compromise gives a slight chance of rain in our western counties by late in the day Saturday. The GFS (wettest model) shows stable soundings with its precip, while the NAM and ECMWF are mainly dry until evening. Considering that, have not included thunder during the day Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 Unfortunately this cooler and quiet spell of weather must come to an end. By Saturday evening/night, the next weather system will begin bearing down on eastern KY. High pressure and an upper level ridge will be in place across JKL during the day Saturday, but by Saturday evening, these will be exiting east of the state. This will allow a shortwave to make its way into the Commonwealth starting in the afternoon in the west, and slowly continue east throughout the evening and overnight. This will be accompanied by a surface low pressure system which will skirt north of the Ohio River Saturday evening and night. Much of KY will find itself near the warm front, with a surge of warm/moist SW flow ahead of the cold frontal passage. This associated cold front should make it to eastern KY by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this cold front, with pops moving in from the west and becoming widespread overnight Saturday night, then continuing into Sunday before exiting to the east by the afternoon/evening. Thankfully this shortwave and surface system are not connected to a larger- scale troughing pattern, so there isn't going to be a clash in airmasses and temperature. Therefore, don't expect much in the way of severe weather concerns (SPC is also not highlighting it at this time), and shouldn't see too much of a temperature drop behind the departing cold front. Rather, instead of a cooler airmass setting in, Monday actually gets warmer as upper level ridging and high pressure set in briefly. The NBM has temperatures rising well into the low and mid 80s across eastern KY, some 10 degrees higher than the previous day in multiple locations. Models are already starting to show disagreement in their solutions from this point forward, especially when it comes to pops affecting the region. Therefore, stuck with the NBM, which does introduce mainly diurnally driven convection, peaking in the afternoon and decreasing overnight. The better chance for pops may come Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a large upper level low tracks across the Canadian border, with an occluded surface low pressure center and cold front which will make its way across the state. Didn't see any reason to deviate from NBM pops through the extended given uncertainties, but do expect some changes in their solutions as we get closer. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 80s through the remainder of the period after Monday. Overnight lows are a bit more interesting. The NBM shows some amount of cloud cover moving across the region every night of the work week, though not completely obscuring the sky. There is a lot of uncertainty here. Where and when and how much these clouds set up will inevitably make an impact on the overnight temperatures. And because there is chances of convection just about every day, we won't get the strong radiational cooling like we would if we were sitting under strong high pressure (subsidence) and clear skies. Did put in some ridge/valley temperature differences, but didn't go too crazy, since there may still be quite a bit of variability. Generally expect temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s for Sunday night after the frontal passage, and then in the 60s for the lows moving forward. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The only exception will be localized valley fog during the early morning hours on Saturday, but the TAF sites will not be impacted. Light and variable winds tonight will become southerly at 5 to 9 kts after around 14Z. Look for some Lower clouds and shower chances to start to move into the western aerodromes of KSME and KLOZ, after 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...CMC/GREIF ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="8ff3106e-ef23-40f6-a0c2-ebebf02cefde" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>