<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:50:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-05-31T23:50:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9513" issue="2024-05-31T23:50:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KJKL" awipsid="AFDJKL"><![CDATA[

155

FXUS63 KJKL 312350 AAA

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Jackson KY

750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry weather can be expected today and into Saturday. The next

  system will then begin to impact the region starting late

  Saturday and continuing into Sunday.  



- It will become warmer and more humid with a potential of 

  showers and thunderstorms continuing into the new work week. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east and holding 

on for one more evening over eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, low

pressure continues to work towards eastern Kentucky from the west

with some leading high clouds moving into the area from central 

Kentucky. Most of the fair weather cumulus has cleared out with

the approach of sunset. This will likely allow for a period of

decent radiational cooling yielding a moderate ridge to valley 

temperature split through the night along with a potential for 

fog in the river valleys late tonight into dawn, Saturday.

Currently temperatures vary from the upper 60s in some sheltered 

eastern valleys to the low and mid 70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid 

generally light and variable winds, dewpoints range from the mid 

and upper 40s north to the low and mid 50s south. Have updated the

forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the 

T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD

and web servers. 



UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



The late morning update raises Sky grids through the short term 

as high-level cloud cover is proving to be thicker than initially

forecast, enough so to partially obscure the sun. Besides raising

the sky cover in the grids, changes were minimal. Blended in

latest observations to the forecast.  



UPDATE Issued at 703 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



The forecast is on track. Early morning obs are blended into the

forecast without substantive changes.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



Early this morning an upper level trough is centered along the 

East Coast, ridging is over the upper Great Lakes and mid 

Mississippi Valley, and a weak trough is to the west of that. At 

the surface, high pressure is centered over OH. The setup is 

bringing us our cool and dry weather.



The regime will shift east with time. This results in rising

geopotential heights and low level flow veering from easterly 

today to southerly by Saturday. Abundant sunshine under the 

arriving upper level ridge will bring a sizable warmup today. A 

dry air mass still in place will allow for cool valley 

temperatures in the 40s again tonight, but the return of low level

warm air advection will hold ridges milder. The upper level ridge

will slip to our east on Saturday and the weak trough will 

approach while low level southerly flow advects moisture 

northward. The GFS is faster to bring the moist flow and precip 

eastward into our area compared to the ECMWF and NAM. A model 

blend/compromise gives a slight chance of rain in our western 

counties by late in the day Saturday. The GFS (wettest model) 

shows stable soundings with its precip, while the NAM and ECMWF 

are mainly dry until evening. Considering that, have not included 

thunder during the day Saturday.



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)

Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



Unfortunately this cooler and quiet spell of weather must come to an 

end. By Saturday evening/night, the next weather system will begin 

bearing down on eastern KY. High pressure and an upper level ridge 

will be in place across JKL during the day Saturday, but by Saturday 

evening, these will be exiting east of the state. This will allow a 

shortwave to make its way into the Commonwealth starting in the 

afternoon in the west, and slowly continue east throughout the 

evening and overnight. This will be accompanied by a surface low 

pressure system which will skirt north of the Ohio River Saturday 

evening and night. Much of KY will find itself near the warm front, 

with a surge of warm/moist SW flow ahead of the cold frontal 

passage. This associated cold front should make it to eastern KY 

by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead 

of this cold front, with pops moving in from the west and becoming

widespread overnight Saturday night, then continuing into Sunday 

before exiting to the east by the afternoon/evening. Thankfully 

this shortwave and surface system are not connected to a larger-

scale troughing pattern, so there isn't going to be a clash in 

airmasses and temperature. Therefore, don't expect much in the way

of severe weather concerns (SPC is also not highlighting it at 

this time), and shouldn't see too much of a temperature drop 

behind the departing cold front.



Rather, instead of a cooler airmass setting in, Monday actually gets 

warmer as upper level ridging and high pressure set in briefly. The 

NBM has temperatures rising well into the low and mid 80s across 

eastern KY, some 10 degrees higher than the previous day in multiple 

locations. Models are already starting to show disagreement in their 

solutions from this point forward, especially when it comes to pops 

affecting the region. Therefore, stuck with the NBM, which does 

introduce mainly diurnally driven convection, peaking in the 

afternoon and decreasing overnight. The better chance for pops may 

come Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a large upper level low 

tracks across the Canadian border, with an occluded surface low 

pressure center and cold front which will make its way across the 

state. Didn't see any reason to deviate from NBM pops through the 

extended given uncertainties, but do expect some changes in their 

solutions as we get closer.



Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 80s through the 

remainder of the period after Monday. Overnight lows are a bit more 

interesting. The NBM shows some amount of cloud cover moving across 

the region every night of the work week, though not completely 

obscuring the sky. There is a lot of uncertainty here. Where and 

when and how much these clouds set up will inevitably make an impact 

on the overnight temperatures. And because there is chances of 

convection just about every day, we won't get the strong radiational 

cooling like we would if we were sitting under strong high pressure 

(subsidence) and clear skies. Did put in some ridge/valley 

temperature differences, but didn't go too crazy, since there may 

still be quite a bit of variability. Generally expect temperatures 

in the upper 50s and low 60s for Sunday night after the frontal 

passage, and then in the 60s for the lows moving forward. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The only 

exception will be localized valley fog during the early morning

hours on Saturday, but the TAF sites will not be impacted. Light 

and variable winds tonight will become southerly at 5 to 9 kts 

after around 14Z. Look for some Lower clouds and shower chances 

to start to move into the western aerodromes of KSME and KLOZ, 

after 18Z.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...GREIF

SHORT TERM...HAL

LONG TERM...JMW

AVIATION...CMC/GREIF

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