<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9774" issue="2024-06-01T00:00:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KJKL" awipsid="AFDJKL"><![CDATA[ 423 FXUS63 KJKL 010000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather can be expected through Saturday morning. The next system will then begin to impact the region starting late Saturday and continuing into Sunday. - Sensible weather conditions will become warmer and more humid with a potential of showers and thunderstorms continuing into the new work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east and holding on for one more evening over eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, low pressure continues to work towards eastern Kentucky from the west with some leading high clouds moving into the area from central Kentucky. Most of the fair weather cumulus has cleared out with the approach of sunset. This will likely allow for a period of decent radiational cooling yielding a moderate ridge to valley temperature split through the night along with a potential for fog in the river valleys late tonight into dawn, Saturday. Currently temperatures vary from the upper 60s in some sheltered eastern valleys to the low and mid 70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid generally light and variable winds, dewpoints range from the mid and upper 40s north to the low and mid 50s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 The late morning update raises Sky grids through the short term as high-level cloud cover is proving to be thicker than initially forecast, enough so to partially obscure the sun. Besides raising the sky cover in the grids, changes were minimal. Blended in latest observations to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 703 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 The forecast is on track. Early morning obs are blended into the forecast without substantive changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 Northerly flow aloft gives way to amplified upper ridging over the area by this evening, which then gives way to southerly flow aloft and weak warm advection overnight tonight. A weak slow-moving shortwave disturbance then moves east up the Ohio River Valley Saturday into Saturday night bringing increasing moisture and meager instability. With upper ridging moving over the area tonight expect another night of good to excellent radiational cooling conditions, though high clouds could disrupt that somewhat. Nevertheless, COOP MOS suggests many sheltered valley locations will fall down well into the 40s, with the potential for lower 40s at the coldest locations, with lower to mid 50s on the ridgetops as warm advection begins to increase and amplify ridge-valley temperature differences. Warm advection begins to increase in the early morning hours Saturday, with thickening cloud cover and moisture arriving from west to east through the daytime hours. Instability is significantly lacking so lowered the PotThunder grids about 5 percent, enough to keep any mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast through early Saturday evening. With thicker cloud cover beginning in the morning in the southwest and not reaching the far eastern areas until later in the afternoon, highs in the west, and southwest especially, are only expected to reach the mid 70s, while highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected in the Big Sandy basin. The model consensus continues to delay arrival of precipitation into and across the forecast area until later in the day Saturday. Nevertheless, shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday evening into the overnight, especially western and northern parts of the forecast area, with highest QPF approaching 0.50-0.75 inches along and north of Interstate 64 and lowest QPF of 0.10" or less across the southeastern third of the forecast area. With increased cloud cover and moisture, lows Saturday night look to be warmer in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 An active weather pattern is anticipated across the CONUS in the extended, as a series of low pressure systems are forecast to move through. The upper level pattern will feature weak ridging in place just offshore of the southeastern US. This ridge will quickly retreat out to sea, as a short wave makes its way eastward through Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A broad, flattened ridge will move in behind the departing trough Sunday night into Monday, and will give us a breif respite from the numerous showers and scattered storms we will likely experience around the area on Sunday. This ridge may be strong and persistent enough to keep the weather dry or mostly dry Sunday night through Monday morning. After that, another area of low pressure will begin taking shape over the Great Plains, but will be slow to make a strong eastward push, as the surface ridge holds fast. We could see enough instability and heating on Monday to allow for diurnally driven convection, but likely on isolated to scattered stuff based on the latest model data. As the eastern ridge finally begins to weaken Monday night into Tuesday, it will drift off to the east, as the Plains low finally has enough momentum to make a firm eastward push. A cold front associated with the central CONUS low will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, and will get hung over the area through mid-week, as its parent trough intensifies over southern Canada, and sort of sits and spins up there for a bit. The best chances for showers and storms look to be during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday, as the front meanders about nearby. By Thursday, the front and its parent trough should finally make a solid eastward push, as the upper trough begins move off to east across Canada. We should see numerous showers and storms move through the area late Thursday, as the front finally moves through. The rain should steadily taper off Thursday evening and night, after the front has moved by. Enough moisture and lift may be present on the backside of the departing upper trough to allow scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm to linger over the area on Friday. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal on average, with daytime highs maxing out in the upper 70s to mid 80s most days, and nightly lows falling into the upper 50s to upper 60s through the period. We don't anticipate any threats of severe weather or flooding in the extended at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The only exception will be localized valley fog during the early morning hours on Saturday, but the TAF sites will not be impacted. Light and variable winds tonight will become southerly at 5 to 9 kts after around 14Z. Look for some Lower clouds and shower chances to start to move into the western aerodromes of KSME and KLOZ, after 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC/GREIF ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="2401cded-8d6a-4817-8c3f-5204df86e6dd" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>