<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KJKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.9774" issue="2024-06-01T00:00:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KJKL" awipsid="AFDJKL"><![CDATA[

423

FXUS63 KJKL 010000

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

800 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry weather can be expected through Saturday morning. The next 

  system will then begin to impact the region starting late 

  Saturday and continuing into Sunday. 



- Sensible weather conditions will become warmer and more humid

  with a potential of showers and thunderstorms continuing into

  the new work week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east and holding 

on for one more evening over eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, low

pressure continues to work towards eastern Kentucky from the west

with some leading high clouds moving into the area from central 

Kentucky. Most of the fair weather cumulus has cleared out with

the approach of sunset. This will likely allow for a period of

decent radiational cooling yielding a moderate ridge to valley 

temperature split through the night along with a potential for 

fog in the river valleys late tonight into dawn, Saturday.

Currently temperatures vary from the upper 60s in some sheltered 

eastern valleys to the low and mid 70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid 

generally light and variable winds, dewpoints range from the mid 

and upper 40s north to the low and mid 50s south. Have updated the

forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the 

T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD

and web servers. 



UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



The late morning update raises Sky grids through the short term 

as high-level cloud cover is proving to be thicker than initially

forecast, enough so to partially obscure the sun. Besides raising

the sky cover in the grids, changes were minimal. Blended in

latest observations to the forecast.  



UPDATE Issued at 703 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



The forecast is on track. Early morning obs are blended into the

forecast without substantive changes.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 308 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



Northerly flow aloft gives way to amplified upper ridging over the 

area by this evening, which then gives way to southerly flow aloft 

and weak warm advection overnight tonight. A weak slow-moving 

shortwave disturbance then moves east up the Ohio River Valley 

Saturday into Saturday night bringing increasing moisture and 

meager instability.



With upper ridging moving over the area tonight expect another night 

of good to excellent radiational cooling conditions, though high 

clouds could disrupt that somewhat. Nevertheless, COOP MOS suggests 

many sheltered valley locations will fall down well into the 40s, 

with the potential for lower 40s at the coldest locations, with 

lower to mid 50s on the ridgetops as warm advection begins to 

increase and amplify ridge-valley temperature differences.



Warm advection begins to increase in the early morning hours 

Saturday, with thickening cloud cover and moisture arriving from 

west to east through the daytime hours. Instability is 

significantly lacking so lowered the PotThunder grids about 5 

percent, enough to keep any mention of thunderstorms out of the 

forecast through early Saturday evening. With thicker cloud cover 

beginning in the morning in the southwest and not reaching the far

eastern areas until later in the afternoon, highs in the west, 

and southwest especially, are only expected to reach the mid 70s, 

while highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected in the Big Sandy 

basin. 



The model consensus continues to delay arrival of precipitation into 

and across the forecast area until later in the day Saturday. 

Nevertheless, shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday 

evening into the overnight, especially western and northern parts of 

the forecast area, with highest QPF approaching 0.50-0.75 inches 

along and north of Interstate 64 and lowest QPF of 0.10" or less 

across the southeastern third of the forecast area. With increased 

cloud cover and moisture, lows Saturday night look to be warmer 

in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. 



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)

Issued at 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



An active weather pattern is anticipated across the CONUS in the 

extended, as a series of low pressure systems are forecast to move 

through. The upper level pattern will feature weak ridging in place 

just offshore of the southeastern US. This ridge will quickly 

retreat out to sea, as a short wave makes its way eastward through 

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A broad, flattened ridge will move in 

behind the departing trough Sunday night into Monday, and will give 

us a breif respite from the numerous showers and scattered storms we 

will likely experience around the area on Sunday. This ridge may be 

strong and persistent enough to keep the weather dry or mostly dry 

Sunday night through Monday morning. After that, another area of low 

pressure will begin taking shape over the Great Plains, but will be 

slow to make a strong eastward push, as the surface ridge holds 

fast. We could see enough instability and heating on Monday to allow 

for diurnally driven convection, but likely on isolated to scattered 

stuff based on the latest model data. As the eastern ridge finally 

begins to weaken Monday night into Tuesday, it will drift off to the 

east, as the Plains low finally has enough momentum to make a firm 

eastward push. A cold front associated with the central CONUS low 

will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, and will get 

hung over the area through mid-week, as its parent trough 

intensifies over southern Canada, and sort of sits and spins up 

there for a bit. The best chances for showers and storms look to be 

during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday, as the 

front meanders about nearby. By Thursday, the front and its parent 

trough should finally make a solid eastward push, as the upper 

trough begins move off to east across Canada. We should see numerous 

showers and storms move through the area late Thursday, as the front 

finally moves through. The rain should steadily taper off Thursday 

evening and night, after the front has moved by. Enough moisture and 

lift may be present on the backside of the departing upper trough to 

allow scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm to linger over 

the area on Friday.



Temperatures look to be a bit above normal on average, with daytime 

highs maxing out in the upper 70s to mid 80s most days, and nightly 

lows falling into the upper 50s to upper 60s through the period. We 

don't anticipate any threats of severe weather or flooding in the 

extended at this time.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024



VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The only 

exception will be localized valley fog during the early morning

hours on Saturday, but the TAF sites will not be impacted. Light 

and variable winds tonight will become southerly at 5 to 9 kts 

after around 14Z. Look for some Lower clouds and shower chances 

to start to move into the western aerodromes of KSME and KLOZ, 

after 18Z.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...GREIF

SHORT TERM...CMC

LONG TERM...AR 

AVIATION...CMC/GREIF

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