<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KBMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:18:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KBMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:18:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.511" issue="2024-06-01T00:18:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS64" cccc="KBMX" awipsid="AFDBMX"><![CDATA[

973

FXUS64 KBMX 010018

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

718 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024



...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Saturday)

Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024



The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward

overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the

Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly

with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture

increases enough for some precipitation. Early this evening, a

surface front was located over far southwest areas and was the

dividing line between a much more moist environment. The current

forecast message looks good with increasing rain/thunderstorm

chances tonight into Saturday. It still appears there will be a

MArginal Risk of a few severe storms Saturday with the threat

being damaging winds. With the moisture levels increasing, locally

heavy rain is possible. 



75



Previous short-term discussion:

(This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024



Tonight.



A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region 

overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of

the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of 

the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a

diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will 

help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to 

develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the 

southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s

north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s

to near 70 far southwest.



Saturday.



The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much 

of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow 

aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor 

development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity,

especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may 

favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream 

that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an 

organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not 

materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a 

downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher 

precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could 

result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the 

same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds 

will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will 

range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east 

to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.



05



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024



With elevated moisture and a string of impulses within zonal to

northwesterly flow, rain chances remain in the forecast everyday

through much of next week. Forecast remains on track this

afternoon, with no significant adjustments needed.



14



Previous long-term discussion:

(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024



There's still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio 

Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another 

weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated 

as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing 

features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by

mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is 

forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us 

in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week. 

That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.



/61/



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024



All terminals start off VFR as the low levels remain dry. There

were mid and high level clouds overhead. The scattered to isolated

rain/thunderstorms were south and west of all terminals. Moisture

gradually increases from the south and west as low level flow

veers more southerly and increases overnight. Some mention of

thunder and IFR ceilings have been introduced after 09z and

spreads west to east into Saturday. The ceilings generally hang

around between 015-035 during the period with winds become

southeast 10-20kts. Also mentioned the possibility of LLWS as

winds above the surface increase to around 40kts overnight.



75



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Rain chances increase tonight, and remain elevated through Sunday. 

Minimum RH values greater than 50 percent are expected through the

weekend. 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-12mph are expected

Saturday. 20ft winds become southerly Sunday at less than 6mph.

Increased rain chances and elevated moisture values continue

through much of next week.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     62  80  62  82 /  50 100  70  50 

Anniston    65  82  64  81 /  40  80  60  50 

Birmingham  65  82  66  82 /  50 100  60  50 

Tuscaloosa  68  84  68  83 /  70 100  60  50 

Calera      65  82  67  81 /  50 100  60  50 

Auburn      65  83  65  81 /  20  60  40  50 

Montgomery  67  85  67  82 /  50  80  50  50 

Troy        67  83  66  83 /  30  70  40  50 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...75

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...75

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