<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#a20cc823625d586c32d7eedaf70a07b1" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KBMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:18:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KBMX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T00:18:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.511" issue="2024-06-01T00:18:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS64" cccc="KBMX" awipsid="AFDBMX"><![CDATA[ 973 FXUS64 KBMX 010018 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 718 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture increases enough for some precipitation. Early this evening, a surface front was located over far southwest areas and was the dividing line between a much more moist environment. The current forecast message looks good with increasing rain/thunderstorm chances tonight into Saturday. It still appears there will be a MArginal Risk of a few severe storms Saturday with the threat being damaging winds. With the moisture levels increasing, locally heavy rain is possible. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 Tonight. A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s to near 70 far southwest. Saturday. The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity, especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 With elevated moisture and a string of impulses within zonal to northwesterly flow, rain chances remain in the forecast everyday through much of next week. Forecast remains on track this afternoon, with no significant adjustments needed. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 There's still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week. That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame. /61/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 All terminals start off VFR as the low levels remain dry. There were mid and high level clouds overhead. The scattered to isolated rain/thunderstorms were south and west of all terminals. Moisture gradually increases from the south and west as low level flow veers more southerly and increases overnight. Some mention of thunder and IFR ceilings have been introduced after 09z and spreads west to east into Saturday. The ceilings generally hang around between 015-035 during the period with winds become southeast 10-20kts. Also mentioned the possibility of LLWS as winds above the surface increase to around 40kts overnight. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances increase tonight, and remain elevated through Sunday. Minimum RH values greater than 50 percent are expected through the weekend. 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-12mph are expected Saturday. 20ft winds become southerly Sunday at less than 6mph. Increased rain chances and elevated moisture values continue through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 80 62 82 / 50 100 70 50 Anniston 65 82 64 81 / 40 80 60 50 Birmingham 65 82 66 82 / 50 100 60 50 Tuscaloosa 68 84 68 83 / 70 100 60 50 Calera 65 82 67 81 / 50 100 60 50 Auburn 65 83 65 81 / 20 60 40 50 Montgomery 67 85 67 82 / 50 80 50 50 Troy 67 83 66 83 / 30 70 40 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...75 ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="503bcccf-b9cb-4f9c-8562-3d2dd84b9b97" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>