<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#902f419e98f785837567c46bca973065" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KILM issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:04:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KILM issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:04:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.7913" issue="2024-06-01T05:04:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS62" cccc="KILM" awipsid="AFDILM"><![CDATA[

714

FXUS62 KILM 010504

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

104 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through today as 

dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern 

Carolinas. The high will push offshore Sunday, bringing warmer 

and more humid air across the area with isolated showers and 

thunderstorms possible most of next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Skies have cleared and only minor tweaks to temperatures.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Highly amplified cyclonic flow will move off to the east 

tonight being replaced by a highly amplified ridge. At this 

surface very quiet weather will continue and with few clouds and

lighter winds tonight an application of the radiational tool is

warranted for lows. Only some uncertainty of high clouds to the

west prevents ideal conditions. Expect good coverage of lower 

50s and even near 50 for final numbers in the cooler areas. 

Strong insolation/air mass modification leads to highs Saturday 

in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in places.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Quiet weather continues through end of the weekend. After below

normal temps Saturday night/Sunday morning in the upper 

50s-60F, temps warm to mid 80s daytime Sunday. Center of low-mid

level ridge overhead early Sunday shifts offshore during the 

day, with subsidence lingering across the area keeping the area 

dry. Far northwest areas may see a stray storm Sunday afternoon,

where subsidence is a bit weaker, but pops are less than 20%. 

Increasing return flow around offshore high will bring low temps

in the mid 60s Sunday night.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Meteorological summer begins June 1 (Saturday) and next week 

will certainly feel like summer. With high pressure offshore 

supporting WAA and moisture advection from the SW through late 

week, and a pseudo-zonal flow aloft with multiple weak impulses 

moving across, the week will be characterized by slightly above 

normal temperatures and typical summertime diurnal popcorn 

convection. Have pops limited to slight chance Monday and 

Tuesday afternoons, as instability at this time looks meager, 

with increasing storm chances Wednesday and Thursday as 

dewpoints reach 70F and max temps around 90F. A front is 

forecasted to move through the area towards end of the week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High confidence VFR forecast. This TAF is a wind forecast with 

light northeast through sunrise. Southeast winds are expected 

between 14 and 16 UTC as the center high pressure over northeast

North Carolina will slowly to the east. The sea/land 

temperature difference will be enough to enhance winds speed at 

the coastal TAF sites by a few knots over the synoptic flow. 

Winds are expected to become less than 4 knots after 01 UTC.



Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening

thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday.



&&



.MARINE...

Through Saturday...The current northerly flow hanging out near 

15 knots should be the maximum wind speed through Saturday. The 

high pressure system responsible for the wind drifts to the 

east/southeast in time with a more northeasterly component 

developing overnight. Finally a more easterly (sea breeze aided)

flow develops later Saturday. Significant seas are probably at 

their highest as well with the 2-4 foot range drifting downward 

to around two feet Saturday.



Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southeast flow Saturday 

night will turn southerly on Sunday, and remain out of the south

or southwest through late next week as typical summertime 

pattern sets up around Bermuda high. Winds speeds sustained 5-10

kts Sunday through Wednesday, with afternoon gusts around 15 

kts. Similarly, seas remain around 2 ft Saturday night through 

(at least) Wednesday, predominantly as SE swell with a wind wave

mixed in.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...ILM

UPDATE...RH

NEAR TERM...SHK

SHORT TERM...VAO

LONG TERM...VAO

AVIATION...RH

MARINE...SHK/VAO

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