<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#902f419e98f785837567c46bca973065" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KILM issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:04:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KILM issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:04:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.7913" issue="2024-06-01T05:04:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS62" cccc="KILM" awipsid="AFDILM"><![CDATA[ 714 FXUS62 KILM 010504 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 104 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through today as dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern Carolinas. The high will push offshore Sunday, bringing warmer and more humid air across the area with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible most of next week. && .UPDATE... Skies have cleared and only minor tweaks to temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Highly amplified cyclonic flow will move off to the east tonight being replaced by a highly amplified ridge. At this surface very quiet weather will continue and with few clouds and lighter winds tonight an application of the radiational tool is warranted for lows. Only some uncertainty of high clouds to the west prevents ideal conditions. Expect good coverage of lower 50s and even near 50 for final numbers in the cooler areas. Strong insolation/air mass modification leads to highs Saturday in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in places. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through end of the weekend. After below normal temps Saturday night/Sunday morning in the upper 50s-60F, temps warm to mid 80s daytime Sunday. Center of low-mid level ridge overhead early Sunday shifts offshore during the day, with subsidence lingering across the area keeping the area dry. Far northwest areas may see a stray storm Sunday afternoon, where subsidence is a bit weaker, but pops are less than 20%. Increasing return flow around offshore high will bring low temps in the mid 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Meteorological summer begins June 1 (Saturday) and next week will certainly feel like summer. With high pressure offshore supporting WAA and moisture advection from the SW through late week, and a pseudo-zonal flow aloft with multiple weak impulses moving across, the week will be characterized by slightly above normal temperatures and typical summertime diurnal popcorn convection. Have pops limited to slight chance Monday and Tuesday afternoons, as instability at this time looks meager, with increasing storm chances Wednesday and Thursday as dewpoints reach 70F and max temps around 90F. A front is forecasted to move through the area towards end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence VFR forecast. This TAF is a wind forecast with light northeast through sunrise. Southeast winds are expected between 14 and 16 UTC as the center high pressure over northeast North Carolina will slowly to the east. The sea/land temperature difference will be enough to enhance winds speed at the coastal TAF sites by a few knots over the synoptic flow. Winds are expected to become less than 4 knots after 01 UTC. Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...The current northerly flow hanging out near 15 knots should be the maximum wind speed through Saturday. The high pressure system responsible for the wind drifts to the east/southeast in time with a more northeasterly component developing overnight. Finally a more easterly (sea breeze aided) flow develops later Saturday. Significant seas are probably at their highest as well with the 2-4 foot range drifting downward to around two feet Saturday. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southeast flow Saturday night will turn southerly on Sunday, and remain out of the south or southwest through late next week as typical summertime pattern sets up around Bermuda high. Winds speeds sustained 5-10 kts Sunday through Wednesday, with afternoon gusts around 15 kts. Similarly, seas remain around 2 ft Saturday night through (at least) Wednesday, predominantly as SE swell with a wind wave mixed in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RH MARINE...SHK/VAO ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="afe03fe8-f3f3-4aa8-8563-9a005714582d" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>