<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#902f419e98f785837567c46bca973065" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KIWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:20:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KIWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:20:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.8384" issue="2024-06-01T05:20:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KIWX" awipsid="AFDIWX"><![CDATA[ 191 FXUS63 KIWX 010520 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat slower trends for arrival of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will be the main concern. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. - Large temperature gradients possible due to precipitation and clouds Saturday and later this week, but overall still near or above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Next 12 to 24 hours will likely be dry for many areas with models continue to trend somewhat slower with onset of increasing moisture and lift. Some concern that best influx of moisture may not arrive till closer to 00Z Sun as the upper low and associated sfc reflection draw closer. Have slowed onset considerably through 18Z but maintained likely or categorical pops during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances still looking rather bleak but still maintained a mention. As mentioned by the overnight forecaster, highs tomorrow will be highly dependent on how fast the rain and clouds arrives. Have increased temps slightly westward but not getting to crazy at this point. Limited ridging will move in for Sunday and at least the first half of Monday before additional waves move towards the region with chances for showers and maybe a few storms once again. Confidence is low on how these chances evolve with timing of specific waves still varying in models. Greatest chances still reside with the main upper level low in the Plains that will deepen and move east towards the region mid week. No significant changes have been made in the forecast at this time due to the timing challenges noted. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Shortwave trough will lift through the area later today with rapidly deteriorating aviation conditions this evening. Adjusted timing of heaviest precip/thunder chances later as low level dry air will likely be slower to erode than most guidance suggests. Thunder chances also appear very minimal given poor lapse rates and very little MUCAPE, but will hold onto a brief VCTS mention for now. It could be removed in later forecasts. Concensus guidance suggests IFR ceilings at FWA and LIFR at SBN Saturday night. Held ceilings a bit higher for now as models have tended to go too low with ceilings in the 18-30 hour time range. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...AGD ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="e67630a7-55ef-41d1-91a4-84eb7264e9b6" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>