<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#902f419e98f785837567c46bca973065" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KIWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:20:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KIWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T05:20:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.8384" issue="2024-06-01T05:20:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS63" cccc="KIWX" awipsid="AFDIWX"><![CDATA[

191

FXUS63 KIWX 010520

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Somewhat slower trends for arrival of showers and isolated

  thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will

  be the main concern.



- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday

  through Thursday.



- Large temperature gradients possible due to precipitation and

  clouds Saturday and later this week, but overall still near or

  above normal.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024



Next 12 to 24 hours will likely be dry for many areas with

models continue to trend somewhat slower with onset of

increasing moisture and lift. Some concern that best influx of

moisture may not arrive till closer to 00Z Sun as the upper low

and associated sfc reflection draw closer. Have slowed onset

considerably through 18Z but maintained likely or categorical

pops during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances

still looking rather bleak but still maintained a mention. As

mentioned by the overnight forecaster, highs tomorrow will be

highly dependent on how fast the rain and clouds arrives. Have

increased temps slightly westward but not getting to crazy at

this point. 



Limited ridging will move in for Sunday and at least the first

half of Monday before additional waves move towards the region

with chances for showers and maybe a few storms once again.

Confidence is low on how these chances evolve with timing of

specific waves still varying in models. Greatest chances still

reside with the main upper level low in the Plains that will

deepen and move east towards the region mid week. No significant

changes have been made in the forecast at this time due to the 

timing challenges noted.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



Shortwave trough will lift through the area later today with

rapidly deteriorating aviation conditions this evening. Adjusted

timing of heaviest precip/thunder chances later as low level dry

air will likely be slower to erode than most guidance suggests.

Thunder chances also appear very minimal given poor lapse rates

and very little MUCAPE, but will hold onto a brief VCTS mention

for now. It could be removed in later forecasts. Concensus 

guidance suggests IFR ceilings at FWA and LIFR at SBN Saturday 

night. Held ceilings a bit higher for now as models have tended 

to go too low with ceilings in the 18-30 hour time range.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fisher

AVIATION...AGD

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