<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#1493fd2fcdaabe78229b7f8e230cc768" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KTBW issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T06:24:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KTBW issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T06:24:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.542" issue="2024-06-01T06:24:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS62" cccc="KTBW" awipsid="AFDTBW"><![CDATA[ 856 FXUS62 KTBW 010624 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic early next week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper trough moving overhead. Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal for early June in FL. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected most terminals today with occasionally gusty easterly winds then trying to seabreeze pinned to the coast late this afternoon. Diurnal seabreeze towering cumulus and mainly ISOLD TSRA possible in SW FL late this afternoon into evening hrs but with lower confidence have left mention and flight restrictions out at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the afternoon seabreeze returning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 74 92 75 / 20 20 40 20 FMY 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 70 40 GIF 91 70 92 71 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 94 73 95 73 / 20 20 40 30 BKV 92 65 94 67 / 10 10 30 20 SPG 91 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RJD ]]></x><stanza-id xmlns="urn:xmpp:sid:0" id="c675c81f-d88f-413b-bf5a-32d8313c5785" by="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov"/></message>