<message to="mfannin2@nwws-oi.weather.gov/jaxl#1493fd2fcdaabe78229b7f8e230cc768" type="groupchat" from="nwws@conference.nwws-oi.weather.gov/nwws-oi"><body>KTBW issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T06:24:00Z</body><html xmlns="http://jabber.org/protocol/xhtml-im"><body xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">KTBW issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T06:24:00Z</body></html><x xmlns="nwws-oi" id="nwws_processor.542" issue="2024-06-01T06:24:00Z" ttaaii="FXUS62" cccc="KTBW" awipsid="AFDTBW"><![CDATA[

856

FXUS62 KTBW 010624

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

224 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an 

upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves

over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic

early next week.



At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic 

states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but 

the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally 

gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions 

today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low 

rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon 

seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide 

Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper 

trough moving overhead.



Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high 

pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating 

and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will

also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal

for early June in FL. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected most terminals today with occasionally 

gusty easterly winds then trying to seabreeze pinned to the coast

late this afternoon. Diurnal seabreeze towering cumulus and mainly

ISOLD TSRA possible in SW FL late this afternoon into evening hrs

but with lower confidence have left mention and flight restrictions

out at this time.



&&



.MARINE...

High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend  

with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially

during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise  

caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and

seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend  

with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot 

temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to 

scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be 

possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the 

afternoon seabreeze returning as well. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  40  20 

FMY  94  73  94  73 /  30  20  70  40 

GIF  91  70  92  71 /  10  10  40  20 

SRQ  94  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30 

BKV  92  65  94  67 /  10  10  30  20 

SPG  91  77  92  77 /  20  20  40  30 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



RJD

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