KDDC issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T08:41:00ZKDDC issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T08:41:00Z90% chance for CAPE values to be >1000j/kg each day along and ahead of this boundary, the conditions are favorable for thunderstorm development both days. Based on the SREF earlier this morning the 0-6km shear >40knots late today/early tonight will range from 50-70%. Sunday the chance for >40 knot shear is not as good 10-30% so chance for severe thunderstorms may be limited to the thunderstorms later today and overnight. Currently given the environment from the majority of the CAMS the main hazards will be quarter size hail or larger, and wind gusts up to 65 mph. The hail risk will primarily be before sunset. Another reason am favoring tonight over Sunday night for strong to severe thunderstorms is due to the developing low level jet develops, good 850-700mb moisture transport with little CIN is forecast by several CAMS, This suggest that thunderstorms tonight may linger longer as they cross southwest Kansas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As we head into early next week the 850 to 700 mb temperatures will warm on Monday as the mid level baroclinic zone that has been over southwest Kansas the last several days moves north and east. This will allow highs to return to the 90s for much of southwest Kansas. Also given the recent rainfall, these 90-degree afternoon temperatures combined with forecast humidity values currently forecast across southwest Kansas result in heat index readings climbing into the upper 90s in some locations, mainly east and south of Dodge City. On Tuesday all the mean ensembles are in good agreement on a more significant upper level trough crossing the central plains. However, given the location of the mid-level baroclinic zone, the chance for precipitation with this upper trough will be limited to central Kansas and along the I-70 corridor. This upper trough will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas by midweek. Mid to late week, we are a bit surprised by the lack of a warmup in temperatures, especially west of Dodge City given that all the ensembles appear to be in decent agreement with a developing northwest flow as an upper ridge over the western United States slowly moves east toward the Four Corners region. Further east, it is understandable to keep temperatures on the cooler side as multiple upper waves rotate around an upper low over the Great Lakes, which will maintain a surface boundary somewhere in central or western Kansas. The exact location of this boundary is uncertain, and confidence in pinpointing it that far out is low. As a result, I will stay close to the current forecast. However, for locations west of Dodge City, do not be surprised if high temperatures climb into the mid 90s late in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Short term models are in good agreement with a cluster of thunderstorms crossing southwest Kansas through 10Z this Saturday morning. As these storms pass, a brief period of ceilings as low as 2000 to 3000 ft AGL will be possible, but the primary ceilings will be at or above 3000 ft AGL. Winds will be the main hazard, with gusts up to 40 knots possible, mainly in the Garden City and Dodge City areas. Stratus and fog will be the main issue overnight in the Hays area, with BUFR soundings and the latest ceiling/visibility probabilities indicating a period of LIFR conditions possible between 08Z and 15Z. These ceilings will improve, and the thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast early this Saturday morning, with clearing skies expected between 15Z and 18Z today. Winds overnight and Saturday will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert/Tatro/Russell AVIATION...Burgert ]]>