KCAE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T09:09:00ZKCAE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T09:09:00Z 500 J/kg quite low across the area. Mid level lapse rates will be weak with possibly considerable mid level cloudiness. Temperatures still a little below normal in the low to mid 80s. Models suggest a short wave will move through the region in the afternoon but the stronger dynamics remain to the north across NC and the Mid Atlantic region. The CAMS suggest limited coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC Piedmont early in the afternoon where the moisture flux will be focused. Convection should diminish early in the evening although weak short wave energy moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands. Monday and Monday night...Northwest flow aloft on Monday with the upper trough axis offshore. Short wave ridging may result in mid level capping. but lapse rates may be a bit steeper. Models indicate a little more instability but short wave ridging may result in mid level capping. Higher precipitable water values are in the coastal plain. Lack of trigger suggests widely scattered showers or thunderstorms, possibly focused in the east and mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures back to around 90 degrees for high temps with less cloudiness and warm advection. Low temperatures at or above normal in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Little change in the air mass Tuesday, the upper flow appears more zonal with a flat upper ridge over the area. This is evident in both the deterministic and ensemble models. Short waves appear upstream near the central Mississippi Valley. the air mass does appear to be a little more unstable as precipitable water again increases, but expect some capping. Any Convection in the afternoon should be widely scattered with trigger lacking. Temps continue to warm. The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late week as a anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move toward the region Thursday and pass southeast of the area sometime Friday based on latest ensembles. Ensembles also indicate stronger instability and deep layer shear ahead of the front by Thursday. So, scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnally driven. Stronger storms possible Thursday as the front approaches. Temperatures near normal until frontal passage. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will slowly shift out of the southeast this morning, with some gusts 10-12 knots possible this afternoon. A typical 5-6k foot cumulus scattered deck is expected this afternoon thanks to moisture return. Winds weaken overnight with some mid-level clouds likely. Rain chances start to increase late in the TAF period, but confidence is still too low in timing and coverage for any mention yet. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon showers and storms each day Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise, low chance of restrictions late this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ ]]>