KLBF issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T09:11:00ZKLBF issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2024-06-01T09:11:00Z75mph) wind gusts Sunday evening across the area. - Additional threats for thunderstorms exist Monday and Tuesday, though the threat for any severe weather remains unclear. - A lull in precipitation is expected into mid-week, with showers/thunderstorms then returning late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Currently, elevated supercells have developed across the Panhandle, in a broad warm advection regime atop a largely stable boundary layer. Shear profiles remain supportive of these supercells sustaining through at least sunrise, with right mover motions off to the southeast. Extrapolation suggests a continued threat for large hail for areas near and west of HWY 83 and along and south of HWY 2, where the best overlap of elevated instability and deep layer shear exists. As low level flow weakens after sunrise, convection should eventually weaken and dry conditions should then persist into this afternoon. By late afternoon, persistent southeasterly flow will promote dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to low 60s across southwest Nebraska. With steepening lapse rates aloft, MLCAPE values look to climb to >2000 J/kg south of HWY 2, with lessening values to the north. High-res guidance continues to point to initial discrete thunderstorm development across northeast Colorado by late afternoon, as inhibition erodes and convergence increases along a dryline. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is possible further northeast into western/central Nebraska along any more diffuse surface boundaries, though confidence in this remains low for now. For any storms that form, deep layer shear vectors look to be more than supportive of supercells, with at least some clockwise curvature in the lowest few kilometers initially and increasing hodograph length with height. With time into the late evening, the low level jet will begin to strengthen from the south and lead to increasing low level curvature/shear across much of the area. There does appear to be a brief window should any thunderstorms remain discrete in the late evening hours. The more prevalent threat looks to be large to very large hail, with adequate deep layer shear, steep mid- level lapse rates, good CAPE distributions (largely subfreezing),and mid-level storm relative wind vectors largely perpendicular to the initiating dryline. Some damaging wind threat will accompany storms as well. It appears the threat should be maximized in the evening and early overnight hours, before waning due to a combination of both a stabilizing boundary layer and storms exiting the area to the east. The next, potentially high impact, round of severe thunderstorms looks to be on tap for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of western and north central Nebraska. A similar environment looks to be in place across the area in the afternoon on Sunday, with upper 50 to low 60 dewpoints overspreading the area. Ample MLCAPE again will be present, with adequate deep layer shear to support updraft organization. As a shortwave trough crosses the Rockies Sunday evening, an associated surface low will eject northeastward across the Dakotas, dragging a cold front through the area during the afternoon. Increased convergence along this encroaching cold front should allow for rapid thunderstorm formation, and enough forcing should exist for at least a broken line of storms. The environment across the warm sector continues to look rather concerning with respect to damaging wind potential, with good inverted-v sounding profiles, high LCLs above the dry sub-cloud layer, and robust DCAPE values. In fact, the majority of this evening's high-res guidance suite paints the potential for 80-85mph wind gusts embedded in the quick moving squall line Sunday evening. More than agree with the inclusion of a significant wind threat in the current Day 2 SPC outlook, and confidence continues to grow in the potential for localized high impact damaging winds Sunday evening. Precisely where this occurs is somewhat low confidence, though nearly all high-res guidance members point to this somewhere across western and north central Nebraska. The bottom line, a significant damaging wind event is possible across portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening, and later forecasts should be monitored closely (especially for those with outdoor plans!). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Additional thunderstorm threats will persist into Monday and Tuesday, though confidence wanes with respect to frontal boundary positioning and associated corridors of best thunderstorm potential. Drier conditions are then expected into midweek, as heights rise aloft and upper ridging begins to establish across the western CONUS. Discrepancies remain between deterministic and ensemble solutions on the orientation and positioning of both the western CONUS ridge and and eastern US trough, leading to lowered confidence for late week and beyond. That said, the background northwesterly flow aloft would point to at least some returning threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, and this will need to be monitored going forward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A few aviation weather concerns exist through the forecast period, including thunderstorms, low ceilings, and potentially fog. The first wave of moisture works into western Nebraska overnight into the early morning hours, likely resulting in scattered showers and storms. IFR ceilings and visby are possible for the southern terminals (LBF) around sunrise. Another round of storms will likely develop toward sunset. Meanwhile, generally light east surface winds will strengthen during the day and transition to south/southeast. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Snively ]]>