KLUB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-11-26T21:23:00Z 865 FXUS64 KLUB 262123 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 323 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... After the windy day today it will turn colder tonight, with increasing precipitation chances, including the threat for wintry weather, by Wednesday afternoon/evening. A powerful winter storm was bringing widespread heavy snow to the central Plains, while on the south side we were see strong downslope winds. The strongest corridor of wind has been occurring across the Texas Panhandle, with another found over the southern South Plains, where a number of locations have gusted to 60+ mph. The winds were slightly weaker in between, but still significant. These central locations may fail to make High Wind Warning criteria, but it will be close, and we will continue the wind highlights as is, expiring at 6 pm. The winds will gradually weaken this evening, then turn light northerly late tonight as a surface ridge spreads in. Mostly clear skies, light winds and dry air will allow temperatures to drop efficiently into the 20s by early Wednesday. After a brief period of shortwave ridging aloft early Wednesday, a powerful storm system affecting the west will cause the upper low currently off the Baja to accelerate northeastward within strengthening southwest flow aloft. This will carry with it plenty of mid-high level moisture which, when coupled with strengthening isentropic upglide, with cause precipitation to blossom over southwest Texas. This precipitation will quickly expand northeastward, affecting the southern South Plains late Wednesday afternoon, and the entire CWA Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, temperatures on the Caprock will quickly fall to near the freezing marking (thanks to wet-bulbing effects) late Wednesday and remain there into Thanksgiving morning. This will mean a risk for wintry weather (freezing rain, sleet and perhaps even a little snow) along with uncertainty with regards to p-type. P-type uncertainty is further compounded by a pronounced warm nose between 800-700 mb. Obviously, where surface temperatures remain above freezing, a cold rain will prevail off the Caprock. Here in Lubbock we could see a period of rain with temperatures right at or very near freezing. The best chance for at least light accumulations of ice (from freezing rain), sleet and perhaps even snow will be across the southwest Texas Panhandle into the northwestern South Plains, where temperatures may drop to near 30 degrees Wednesday night. At this point, we think any accumulations of sleet/snow and ice should be on the light side, but it could still create some travel problems and we will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight this possibility. In fact, a strong WAA regime should cause temperatures to hold steady or even rise slightly through the overnight hours, so the wintry mix line may lift north and northwestward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The steady precipitation will wane by midday Thursday as the subtropical fetch of mid-upper level moisture thins, but a chance of showers will continue for about another 24-36 hours as the large western trough/low translates eastward. We could even see a dryline try to become established off the Caprock Friday afternoon/evening, complete with a chance of afternoon/evening t-storms, while breezy winds prevail west of the dryline. Solidly breezy to windy conditions will follow on Saturday as the trough/low lifts out to our north. After a mild/warm end to the week, temperatures will drop back below average behind the storm system this weekend. Fairly benign weather along with a warming trend will follow into early next week as upper ridging builds over from the west. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ037-038-043-044. High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>036- 039>042. && $$ 23