KBTV issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-11-29T08:43:00Z 998 FXUS61 KBTV 290843 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 343 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy freezing drizzle will continue through mid-morning, resulting in some areas of black ice and slick surfaces. By this afternoon, a period of dry and cold conditions will begin, lasting through Saturday night. With brisk northerly winds, daytime wind chills will be in the teens to single digits today and Saturday. On Sunday, a complex low pressure system will move from the MidWest to the Mid-Atlantic, spreading some snow over the North Country through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 334 AM EST Friday...Have issued a special weather statement for the threat of some patchy black ice early this morning with pockets of freezing drizzle and slick conditions being reported. With low-level moisture remaining trapped beneath a building subsidence inversion through the remainder of the morning, can't rule out some continued freezing drizzle through at least the late morning hours. No measurable accumulations expected, but surfaces may become glazed and slick, especially on secondary and untreated roads. Leave a little extra time for the morning commute and use caution traveling this morning. Forecast soundings indicate low clouds will begin to lift through the morning, and by early afternoon many locations will see some sunshine as clouds scatter out. The exception to this will be the higher terrain of the northern Adirondacks and Green Mountains, where at least some low clouds will linger through the day. In addition, some lower clouds will stick around the eastern Champlain Valley given continued blocked northwesterly flow (stable layer at and just below mountain tops). Temperatures today will struggle to get above the upper 20s as persistent cold air advection offsets any solar heating. With gusty northwesterly winds during the daytime hours, conditions will feel quite bitter/raw with wind chills in the teens. For overnight temperatures tonight, have hedged towards colder guidance given progged 925 mb temps falling below -10 deg C. However, won't see ideal radiational cooling conditions due to persistent northerly flow and some lingering low clouds in the climatologically coldest locations of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Nonetheless, will be a cold night with lows generally in the teens, with a few areas dropping into the single digits. Saturday will be another cold, raw day with temperatures again in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 AM EST Friday...Strong high pressure bridged across the southern half of Quebec south into New England will keep mainly fair and dry weather in the forecast Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures remain quite chilly with daily mean departures averaging from -10 to -15F equating to afternoon highs mainly in the 20s and overnight lows from 5 to 15 above. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 334 AM EST Friday...Complex weather then remains in the forecast from later Sunday into Monday of next week as occluding Midwestern low pressure transfers energy in the New England/Mid Atlantic offshore waters. In general, precipitation in our area will be driven by warm advective processes Sunday evening/night, then to a large extent by the degree to which offshore low pressure evolves and tracks. The latest trends in most guidance suggests aforementioned high pressure will hold stronger than prior indications across our northern/northeastern tier with best frontogenesis and isentropic lift affecting southern and southwestern counties. This morning's ECMWF, GEM and NAM have all trended in this direction with the GFS maintaining consistency with prior runs. The warm nose seen in the GFS has trended cooler however, and as such have kept any p-type concerns at a minimum Sunday night for our area, suggesting mainly a light snow event. By Monday into Monday evening coastal energy takes over and tracks slowly toward the Canadian Maritimes while deepening over time. As synoptic flow trends more northerly decent chances for light snows continue, but given best low to mid level dynamical forcing looks to occur closer to the coast probabilities of heavier precipitation appears on the lower side at this point. Temperatures through these early long term periods remain seasonably cold, but not excessively so with daily highs from 27 to 33 or so, and overnight lows in the 20s as persistent clouds limit any radiative processes. Thereafter, sensible conditions largely settle down by Monday night into Thursday as maritime low pressure pulls away and is replaced by mean surface high pressure. By late in the week ensemble means suggest another polar frontal passage with chances for snow showers increasing. Temperatures remain on the cool side with daily highs in the 30s and overnight lows from 15 to 25. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Predominantly MVFR ceilings with some intermittent lowering to IFR can be expected through 15Z. Will see ceilings lift after 15Z, with clouds scattering out at most TAF sites between 15Z and 00Z. Winds will be from the north between 6 and 12 kts through around 12Z. After 12Z, winds will continue to be from the north but increase in magnitude, with gusts 15 to 25 kts forecast through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Monday: VFR. Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Duell