KBGM issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-11-29T14:57:00Z 483 FXUS61 KBGM 291457 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 957 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow flurries or patchy freezing drizzle possible this morning. Chilly, yet dry weather is expected today through the first half of the weekend. Another wintry mix is expected Sunday into Monday with additional snow showers lingering into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 930 AM Update... With this latest update, kept in chances for flurries/snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle this morning. Did extend the special weather statement to Seneca and Cayuga counties as some sites reporting mist there while temperatures remain in the upper 20s with wet roads. By 18Z, chances for precipitation wind down as lower level dry out. Previous discussion continues below. 355 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the lingering flurries and even some patchy freezing drizzle this morning along the I-90 corridor from Syracuse to Utica...and the dry, clearing conditions later today through Saturday. Strong northernly flow in the lowest 4-7kt ft is combining with a layer of saturation between 0 and -10 degC and weak vertical motion to trigger some light patchy freezing drizzle and/or flurries into portions of central NY. The area of concern initially was around Watertown/Ft. Drum...but has since shifted south into the Syracuse/Utica area. Surface temperatures are hovering around 25 to 29 in this area...and will remain in the upper 20s through around 10 am until warming into the lower to mid 30s. Area roads may become slippery in spots this morning...as indicated on the latest NY511 road conditions map. Use caution this morning. A drier air mass will move in later today as temperatures warm into the 30s...still some 5-10 deg below average for this time of year. High pressure will start to build into the central/ern Great Lakes later today...and slowly progress to the east tonight and Saturday. Rising heights aloft causing large scale suppression will help keep weather conditions quiet into the early part of the weekend. Temperatures tonight will be on the cold side with lows bottoming out in the teens and lower 20s. Highs on Saturday will only top out in the lower 30s in NY...and into the mid to upper 30s in ne PA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 220 AM UPDATE... Models continue to resolve the complex system set to hit at the end of the weekend into Monday. The rend to a cooler solution continues with the GFS still the warmest, but overall the agreement is getting better. Synoptic set up consists of a large blocking high building into New England with a deep, closed and vertically stacked low over the midwest. A warm frontal feature pushes north on Sunday and is stalled by the high and firing a secondary low off the VA capes. This helps lock the cold air in place and shuts off the warm advection. Precipitation falls in at least two phases, with the initial overrunning Sunday, followed by the cold conveyer thrown back from the coastal low and a potential deformation zone snow into Monday. ECMWF drops a considerable amount of snow in the Catskills with this feature, with lesser but still significant snows into the Southern Tier and NEPA. Thermal profile still shows mixed precipitation is likely over NEPA and the central Southern tier, especially Sunday, with a chance of mixed further east and north. Will continue with a mention in the HWO but it seems like this event will need flags pretty soon, especially when you consider the important travel days and the return to work/school on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 235 AM UPDATE... No real cold air in the wake of the Monday storm, but enough wrap around and lake enhanced moisture for snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. Generally quiet weather later Tuesday into Wednesday with near normal temperatures. Low sliding east north of the Great Lakes ushers in colder air behind and surface front and triggers a more significant lake snow event for mid week time. Looks like a log fetch NW flow event with multi lake connection, and deepening cold air. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold northwest flow will keep fuel alternate to MVFR ceilings over the terminals through at least 16-19Z today. Winds will continue to weaken below 10 kt, and snow flurries or patchy freezing drizzle will continue to taper off this morning as drier air moves in. Clouds will slowly lift after 16Z and eventually break up through the afternoon. VFR conditions expected after 19-22Z for all terminals through at least 12Z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday and Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Sunday through Monday...Restrictions possible as potential system brings wintry mix into the area. Tuesday...Restrictions possible in lingering snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/HLC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...BJT/DJP