KLMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-02T17:17:00Z 912 FXUS63 KLMK 021717 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1217 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Updated at 905 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Snow/Rain shower activity is beginning to taper down this morning across the region. Regional radars suggest precipitation has ended this morning across southern Indiana, and should end across central Kentucky over the next couple of hours. With the activity being generally light and non-impactful, have gone ahead and ended the winter weather advisory early across our eastern/southeastern counties. Another round of rain/snow showers will be possible this afternoon. At this time, it appears this next round could result in light snow accumulations for a few isolated spots. With surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing during the duration of the event, not anticipating too many impacts. Will continue to evaluate the setup as the 12z guidance comes in. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Today... Main weather player is a closed upper low over central Ohio, which will move ESE across the Virginias today. A vort lobe pinwheeling around the west side of this system is bringing mostly light precip SSE across southern Indiana and most of Kentucky during the overnight hours. Temperature profiles so far are marginal enough that precip type is mostly rate-driven, and we just haven't had the rates to support more than the odd rain/snow or rain/sleet mix at times. This will continue to be a marginal event through much of the day today. Model soundings continue to show decent low-level lapse rates, but through too shallow of a layer to really get into the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). While there is saturation at cold enough layers, the instability in the DGZ just doesn't support great snowfall rates or snow-to-liquid ratios. Air temps will remain just above freezing, and ground temps should remain warm enough to limit impacts as well. All that being said, there is still a window for minor snow accumulations through midday in the terrain south of Lexington toward Lake Cumberland. Expect most locations to see less than a half inch of snow accumulation, but the Winter Weather Advisory continues to reflect the best chance for localized 1 inch amounts if we can get a streamer off Lake Michigan. Based on collaboration with JKL and OHX, will shorten the expiration time to 18Z. Farther west, the terrain influence is less and potential for accumulating snow will quickly diminish once the main vort lobe pushes into Tennessee. Will not re-issue the Special Weather Statement for areas outside the advisory but can't rule out a few flurries through the day. If we believe the models there is a better shot at a Lake Michigan streamer this evening, but that has a very good chance of staying entirely north and east of our forecast area. Will include slight chance POP roughly along and east of I-75, but not get too carried away with it beyond that. Temps won't move much today, with a couple degrees left to drop before daybreak but only recovering to current levels for the afternoon highs. Only partial clearing in west-central Kentucky tonight, with most of the area staying cloudy, which will keep diurnal temp ranges small. .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Still expecting several dry days in the extended forecast. Tuesday looks partly to mostly cloudy with lingering low clouds in the morning and an increase in mid-level cloud cover later in the day. A progressive shortwave trough will rotate overhead Tuesday evening, but moisture depth will not be sufficient for precip. Highs are expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Upper level flow flattens out through the remainder of the work week, and sfc high pressure builds overhead by 12z Thu. A modest shortwave zips from the southern Plains across the Southeast Thu night into Friday and could bring light precip to the area. Will continue with low chance PoPs with this forecast. A strong sfc high builds in from the northwest on Saturday. A chance for rain returns by Sunday as low pressure gets organized over the Plains, but could see the rain holding off until Sunday night or Monday. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1212 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Widespread fuel-alternate MVFR stratus with isolated IFR stratus is currently being observed across the region. A few small breaks may develop in the stratus, but expect it to persist for most locations through tomorrow morning. Models generally suggest that cigs will slightly improve through the day to above fuel-alternate for sites along and west of I-65. Additionally, isolated to scattered -SNRAPL will be possible this afternoon, and could result in brief reduced visibilities. The precipitation shortly after 00z. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...DM Short Term...RAS Long Term...EBW Aviation...DM