KOAX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-09T09:25:00Z 140 FXUS63 KOAX 090925 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 325 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 Today: Primary forecast concern in the near short term are wind gusts behind the cold front that will pass through the area this morning. A wind advisory has been issued for most of the area til noon as sustained winds are expected from the northwest at 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Though the advisory ends at noon, the winds will still be breezy for most of the day. Wind speeds should begin to noticeably drop by 6 pm. Subsequently, the winds will lead to wind chills around 10 degrees below 0 in areas near Norfolk, Wayne, Neligh, and Crofton. Light snowfall is expected this morning, but totals will not be more than an inch. Snowfall should end by 10 am. Cold air advection behind the front is expected to drop temperatures throughout the day. Temperatures this afternoon should be in the mid teens in far northeastern Nebraska and the mid 20s in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Additionally, a special weather statement was issued for fog in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The fog will not be widespread and will be erased by the dry air associated with the cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday: The work week should mostly be uneventful weather wise. The trough over the Hudson Bay will keep the area in northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will bottom Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with lows expected to drop below 20 degrees for the entire forecast area. Temperatures will be slightly higher Wednesday as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal and flow at the 850 mb level becomes southerly. Thursday through Sunday: Warm air advection Thursday and Friday will lead to quite pleasant days for mid-December, particularly if winter isn't your thing. Extended range models (GFS and ECWMF) hint at active weather for weekend. As per usual, there isn't much for agreement. However, the systems do not have much amplification and it's likely that any precipitation would be on the lighter side or any lowering of temperatures would be modest. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 VFR conditions initially, but a strong cold front will be moving through all three TAF sites within the next 6 to 9 hours. Light and variable winds now, but becoming northwest at 22 to 34 knots, but then diminishing by 21-24z. There could also be a brief 3 hour period of snow, possibly mixed with some sleet at the onset from about 09-12z at KOFK, and 11-15z at KLNK/KOMA. Accumulations are forecast to be light side, generally less than one half inch, and will be hard to measure with the very strong winds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fajman AVIATION...DeWald