KOAX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-09T17:38:00Z    

054

FXUS63 KOAX 091738

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1138 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019



...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019



Today:

Primary forecast concern in the near short term are wind gusts

behind the cold front that will pass through the area this

morning. A wind advisory has been issued for most of the area til

noon as sustained winds are expected from the northwest at 20 to 

35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Though the advisory ends at noon, 

the winds will still be breezy for most of the day. Wind speeds 

should begin to noticeably drop by 6 pm. Subsequently, the winds 

will lead to wind chills around 10 degrees below 0 in areas near 

Norfolk, Wayne, Neligh, and Crofton. 



Light snowfall is expected this morning, but totals will not be 

more than an inch. Snowfall should end by 10 am. Cold air 

advection behind the front is expected to drop temperatures 

throughout the day. Temperatures this afternoon should be in the 

mid teens in far northeastern Nebraska and the mid 20s in 

southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.



Additionally, a special weather statement was issued for fog in 

southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The fog will not be 

widespread and will be erased by the dry air associated with the 

cold front.



Tuesday and Wednesday:

The work week should mostly be uneventful weather wise. The trough

over the Hudson Bay will keep the area in northwest flow Tuesday

and Wednesday. Temperatures will bottom Tuesday night into

Wednesday morning with lows expected to drop below 20 degrees for

the entire forecast area. Temperatures will be slightly higher 

Wednesday as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal and flow 

at the 850 mb level becomes southerly.



Thursday through Sunday:

Warm air advection Thursday and Friday will lead to quite  

pleasant days for mid-December, particularly if winter isn't your 

thing. Extended range models (GFS and ECWMF) hint at active 

weather for weekend. As per usual, there isn't much for agreement.

However, the systems do not have much amplification and it's 

likely that any precipitation would be on the lighter side or any 

lowering of temperatures would be modest.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019



The leading edge of a strong cold front continues to push deep

into the central Plains this afternoon. In the wake of the

boundary northwest winds will continue gusting 20 to 30 mph the

rest of the afternoon before subsiding later this evening. As a

result of the gusty winds BLSN will be an issue at both KOFK and 

KOMA for the next couple hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will 

prevail through the forecast period. 





&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fajman

AVIATION...DEE