KMEG issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-10T21:22:00Z    

220

FXUS64 KMEG 102122

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

322 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019



.DISCUSSION...

Mid-afternoon GOES water vapor imagery indicated a diffluent and 

moisture-laden southern branch of the upper jet over the Midsouth,

downstream of a progressive trof centered over west TX. This trof

will lift east and deamplify this evening, phasing with a progressive

northern branch longwave trof over the mid MS River valley. As

this occurs, the elevated warm conveyor belt that has supplied 

mixed wintry precip will shift east of the Midsouth, ending the 

light snow over northeast MS.



Through mid-Tuesday afternoon, minor snow accumulation have

occurred on grassy areas and trees, mainly in north MS. Further

north toward Memphis and Jackson, the arrival dry air has limited

if not altogether precluded snow beyond midmorning. This elevated

wedge of dry air will eventually drop into north central and then

northeast MS through midevening, as temperatures cool to freezing.

After mentioned in the Special Weather Statement, residual

moisture on bridges will be subject to freezing, as overnight

temps drop into the 20s, accompanied by light or calm winds.



Relatively tranquil weather will follow for Wednesday, with zonal

flow aloft, sunny skies and temps warming into the 40s. A

deamplifying southern branch trof will lift to AR Thursday

evening. This system will have limited moisture to work with over

the Midsouth, but will phase with a weak trof and low level

moisture over the northern gulf. Rain chances rise to mentionable

levels east of the MS River Friday afternoon, but confidence is

limited, at best. 



Fast zonal flow will prevail over the weekend, in advance of a

longwave trof lifting across the southern plains early next week.

Next Monday appears to hold the best rain chances over the next 7

days, with some light snow possibly mixing in over far northeast

AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN.  



PWB



&&



.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs



Light precipitation in the form of light rain and perhaps

occasional sleet or snow is occurring east of the MS River as of

18Z. This may occur at MEM/MKL through 19Z with the remainder of

rain/wintry precipitation chances shifting to TUP for the

remainder of the afternoon into early evening. NE winds around

8-11 kts with a few higher gusts will become light by tonight.

MVFR conditions at TUP will improve to VFR conditions by this

evening as gradual clearing is expected at all sites into 

Wednesday.



CJC



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$