KMEG issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-11T05:25:00Z    

102

FXUS64 KMEG 110525

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1125 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019



.UPDATE...





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.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1030 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ 



UPDATE...



All winter precipitation has come to an end across the forecast area.

However, impacts are now occurring due to flash freezing of 

residual moisture on the roadways. A new SPS was issued to address

the areas of greatest concern tonight, which include most of

northeast Mississippi and portions of Tennessee near the Tennessee

River. We have already received multiple reports of icy roadways,

overpasses, and bridges across north Mississippi. Temperatures 

will fall into the mid 20s overnight under clear skies and light 

to calm winds. Temperatures will climb above freezing late 

Wednesday morning under sunny skies. 



Adjusted temperatures and sky cover through overnight hours. The 

rest of the forecast is in good shape. 



AC3 



&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ 



DISCUSSION...

Mid-afternoon GOES water vapor imagery indicated a diffluent and 

moisture-laden southern branch of the upper jet over the Midsouth,

downstream of a progressive trof centered over west TX. This trof

will lift east and deamplify this evening, phasing with a progressive

northern branch longwave trof over the mid MS River valley. As

this occurs, the elevated warm conveyor belt that has supplied 

mixed wintry precip will shift east of the Midsouth, ending the 

light snow over northeast MS.



Through mid-Tuesday afternoon, minor snow accumulation have

occurred on grassy areas and trees, mainly in north MS. Further

north toward Memphis and Jackson, the arrival dry air has limited

if not altogether precluded snow beyond midmorning. This elevated

wedge of dry air will eventually drop into north central and then

northeast MS through midevening, as temperatures cool to freezing.

After mentioned in the Special Weather Statement, residual

moisture on bridges will be subject to freezing, as overnight

temps drop into the 20s, accompanied by light or calm winds.



Relatively tranquil weather will follow for Wednesday, with zonal

flow aloft, sunny skies and temps warming into the 40s. A

deamplifying southern branch trof will lift to AR Thursday

evening. This system will have limited moisture to work with over

the Midsouth, but will phase with a weak trof and low level

moisture over the northern gulf. Rain chances rise to mentionable

levels east of the MS River Friday afternoon, but confidence is

limited, at best. 



Fast zonal flow will prevail over the weekend, in advance of a

longwave trof lifting across the southern plains early next week.

Next Monday appears to hold the best rain chances over the next 7

days, with some light snow possibly mixing in over far northeast

AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN.  



PWB



&&



.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs



Wintry precipitation has exited the region and all sites are at

VFR conditions. Winds will be light to calm overnight. High

pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the next 24 hrs so

VFR conditions will continue at all sites through tomorrow. 



17



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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$