KOHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) valid 2019-12-11T11:01:00Z 942 FXUS64 KOHX 111101 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 501 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Broad consensus model blend used, with greatest influences within blend given to latest GFS,NAM, and ECMWF solutions per latest NWS Weather Prediction Center Model Diagnostic Discussion Reasoning. Special Weather Statement issued on evening shift for southern and eastern portions of mid state per icy roads and bridges possible overnight still quite valid as temperatures across mid state shortly after 3 AM CST are below freezing. Light snow ended across Cumberland Plateau Region late last evening. Today through Thursday afternoon will be dry as upper troughing continues to move eastward, and as surface high pressure influences move southwest to northeast across eastern half of U.S. Clear skies are expected across mid state through Thursday morning. Highs today will be generally 5-8 degrees below seasonal normal values mainly in the mid to upper 40s, around 40 to lower 40s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will be seasonably cold mainly in mid 20s. As surface high pressure influences shift eastward, southerly return low level atmospheric flow will support partly cloudy skies during afternoon hours on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will rebound to around seasonal normal values, low to mid 50s, upper 40s Cumberland Plateau Region. As evening hours progress on Thursday night, this dry weather pattern will end with an overall wet weather pattern will become established across mid state region through next Tuesday. As of this time, total rainfall amounts are expected to range from just over 1.5 inches northwest to approaching 3.0 inches Upper Cumberland Region during this time period. Taking a closer look, GFS, NAM, ECMWF keep most of early rain chances confined to eastern half of area Thursday evening but spread the chance of precipitation across almost all of mid state region after midnight Thursday night. Lows Thursday night are expected to span mid 30s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 40s near TN/AL border region. There could be a rain/snow wintry mix during morning hours on Friday, but no significant wintry accumulations are expected as of this time. This wet weather pattern develops as an initial upper level trough swings through mid state region, one of many upper level trough passages anticipated through first part of next work week. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler than those experienced on Thursday but should rebound to around seasonal normal values on Saturday. Lows Friday night are expected to be mainly in the lower 40s. Best potential break in this wet weather pattern looks to be Saturday night into Sunday morning as a surface cold front pushes into southern portions of mid state region late Saturday night and Midwestern high pressure influences build in behind. Upper level flow is also expected to develop zonal characteristics during this time period. Lows will continue to be in mid 30s Saturday and Sunday nights, with highs on Sunday lower 40s north to lower 50s south. Model consensus continues to show development of a strong Plains upper level trough Monday, with the bulk of above mentioned rainfall amounts occuring through at least mid day on Tuesday. This due to above mentioned surface cold front actually hangs around southern portions of mid state region as a stationary front on Monday morning before eventually being pushed well south and east as strong high pressures across the central Rockies influences begin to be felt across mid state region. Highs on Monday will be at or a few degrees above seasonal normal values. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the lower 30s. Highs on Tuesday may only be in the mid 40s. Still a little early to determine exactly if there will be any significant accumulating snowfall potential Monday night into Tuesday morning, but a chance of snowfall may certainly be possible. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...With yesterday's cold front now well to our east, a ridge of high pressure will settle over Middle Tennessee today, then move off to the east overnight. Expect VFR wx the next 24 hrs. and beyond with generally light winds thru the TAF period. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......JB Wright AVIATION........08